AZ Alkmaar
vs
Twente
Garuda Lions Prediction: AZ Alkmaar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AZ Alkmaar is the favourite, not a value bet.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
| Probability | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.8% | 26.5% | 33.7% |
| Market | 43.7% | 24.2% | 32.0% |
| Final | 42.8% | 24.8% | 32.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.6% | +0.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (our 42.8% × 2.23 − 1).
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente match preview
AZ Alkmaar faces Twente in a closely contested Eredivisie matchup. Our model gives AZ Alkmaar a 41% chance of winning, while Twente has a 33% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of AZ Alkmaar, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to have a similar offensive output, with expected goals of 1.40 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.39 for Twente.
In terms of recent form, AZ Alkmaar has recorded two draws and two losses in their last six matches, while Twente is on a stronger run with four wins in their last six games. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters shows a balanced competition, with each team claiming one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
AZ Alkmaar and Twente team news
AZ Alkmaar news
- J. Clasie — knock
- J. Hornkamp — injury
- K. Smit — injury
- S. Resink — knee injury
Twente news
- F. Thorvaldsen — inactive
- L. Unnerstall — inactive
- M. Bruns — inactive
- S. Lemkin — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AZ Alkmaar and Twente expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
AZ Alkmaar and Twente attack and defence ratings
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 42.8% | 2.34 | -1.0% | 2.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 42.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Twente | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 60.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente stats
AZ Alkmaar and Twente recent form
| AZ Alkmaar |
WDWLWL |
| Twente |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AZ Alkmaar and Twente season so far
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Twente record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | AZ Alkmaar | Twente | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-03 | AZ Alkmaar | Twente | KNVB Beker | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Twente | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 24.2%, away 32.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.86 | 2.99 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.74 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.92 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.46 | 2.67 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .