Excelsior
vs
Twente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Twente
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Twente is the favourite, not a value bet.
Excelsior vs Twente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior vs Twente
| Probability | Excelsior | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.7% | 22.5% | 57.7% |
| Market | 18.8% | 20.8% | 60.4% |
| Final | 19.0% | 21.2% | 59.8% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.4% | -0.7% |
Why Twente
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.4% per unit staked (our 59.8% × 1.60 − 1).
Excelsior vs Twente match preview
Excelsior faces Twente in their upcoming Eredivisie clash with a significant disparity in recent form. Excelsior has struggled lately, recording three losses and two draws in their last five matches. In contrast, Twente has shown stronger performance, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their recent outings. The expected goals indicate a potential 1.26 for Excelsior and 2.20 for Twente, suggesting a challenging match for the home side.
Our model indicates a 19% probability of an Excelsior win, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 60% likelihood of a Twente victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows Excelsior with one win and one draw against Twente in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior and Twente expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Excelsior and Twente attack and defence ratings
Excelsior
Twente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior vs Twente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 59.8% | 1.67 | -0.7% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 19.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Twente | 59.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.3% |
Excelsior vs Twente stats
Excelsior and Twente recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Excelsior and Twente season so far
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Twente record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Excelsior vs Twente head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Twente | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Excelsior | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Excelsior vs Twente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.8%, draw 20.8%, away 60.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.96 | 4.64 | 1.60 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 4.33 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 4.60 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 4.80 | 4.50 | 1.55 |
| Pinnacle | 4.99 | 4.53 | 1.57 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .