Excelsior
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Garuda Lions Prediction: GO Ahead Eagles
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 2.13.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
| Probability | Excelsior | Draw | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.7% | 18.8% | 51.4% |
| Market | 34.6% | 25.6% | 39.8% |
| Final | 33.4% | 23.9% | 42.7% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -1.7% | +2.9% |
Why GO Ahead Eagles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 2.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices GO Ahead Eagles below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.7% per unit staked (our 42.7% × 2.45 − 1).
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles match preview
Excelsior will face GO Ahead Eagles in an Eredivisie matchup, with a close probability split favoring the visitors at 39% compared to Excelsior's 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 6% likelihood. Both teams exhibit strong potential for scoring, with an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% probability that both teams will find the net. Expected goals for Excelsior stand at 2.47, while GO Ahead Eagles are projected at 1.94.
In terms of recent form, Excelsior has struggled, registering one win in their last six matches (W-L-L-L-D-L), while GO Ahead Eagles have shown more resilience, with two wins in their last six (L-W-W-L-D-D). Historically, GO Ahead Eagles have dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against Excelsior.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.88
Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles attack and defence ratings
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GO Ahead Eagles | 42.7% | 2.34 | +2.9% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.5% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 33.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | 42.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 13.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.9% |
| No | 17.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | GO Ahead Eagles win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | |
| 2-3 | 6.0% |
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles stats
Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles recent form
| Excelsior |
LWLLLD |
| GO Ahead Eagles |
LWWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles season so far
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GO Ahead Eagles record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-30 | GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2023-12-16 | Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-14 | Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-29 | GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2021-05-12 | Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2020-10-31 | GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2019-09-07 | GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 25.6%, away 39.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.75 | 3.76 | 2.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.65 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.66 | 3.65 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.68 | 2.36 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.38 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .