Utrecht
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Utrecht
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Utrecht is the favourite, not a value bet.
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
| Probability | Utrecht | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 22.9% | 36.1% |
| Market | 39.1% | 24.9% | 36.0% |
| Final | 39.6% | 24.4% | 36.1% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -0.5% | +0.0% |
Why Utrecht
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.47 − 1).
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen match preview
Utrecht faces NEC Nijmegen in an Eredivisie clash with Utrecht holding a 42% probability of winning compared to NEC Nijmegen's 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Utrecht, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, as the model indicates a 72% chance for both teams to score and a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Utrecht's last six matches show a mixed record of L-W-D-W-W-L, while NEC Nijmegen has drawn three of their last six, with a record of L-D-W-D-D-D. Historically, Utrecht has been dominant in their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against NEC Nijmegen. The expected goals for Utrecht stand at 2.04, while NEC Nijmegen is projected at 1.73.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.80
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen attack and defence ratings
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 39.6% | 2.53 | +0.5% | 2.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 39.6% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 36.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% |
| No | 27.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.9% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen stats
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen recent form
| Utrecht |
LWDWWL |
| NEC Nijmegen |
WLDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen season so far
Utrecht record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEC Nijmegen record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 24.9%, away 36.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.90 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.80 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.44 | 3.85 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.78 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.87 | 2.65 |
| SBO | 2.25 | 3.36 | 2.46 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .