Cambuur
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Garuda Lions Prediction: PSV Eindhoven
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — PSV Eindhoven is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven
| Probability | Cambuur | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.2% | 24.1% | 38.7% |
| Market | 14.9% | 17.0% | 68.1% |
| Final | 20.5% | 18.7% | 60.8% |
| Edge | +5.6% | +1.8% | -7.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.7% per unit staked (our 60.8% × 1.42 − 1).
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven match preview
Cambuur faces PSV Eindhoven in their upcoming Eredivisie match, with the probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Cambuur has an 18% chance of winning, while the draw stands at 19%. PSV Eindhoven holds a 63% probability of securing the victory. The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of goal expectations, Cambuur is forecasted to score 1.60 goals, while PSV Eindhoven is expected to net 1.93. The model suggests a high probability for over 2.5 goals at 68%, and both teams to score at 69%. Recent form shows Cambuur with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while PSV Eindhoven has two wins, two losses, and a draw in the same timeframe.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven attack and defence ratings
Cambuur
PSV Eindhoven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 60.8% | 1.65 | -7.3% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cambuur | 20.5% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| PSV Eindhoven | 60.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven stats
Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven recent form
| Cambuur |
WWWDWD |
| PSV Eindhoven |
LWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven season so far
Cambuur record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PSV Eindhoven record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.9%, draw 17.0%, away 68.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.68 | 5.69 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 5.50 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 5.50 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 6.30 | 5.40 | 1.42 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 5.50 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 6.20 | 5.80 | 1.42 |
| Marathonbet | 6.40 | 5.45 | 1.36 |
| Pinnacle | 6.25 | 5.87 | 1.38 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 4.81 | 1.34 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .