Fortuna Sittard
vs
Telstar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortuna Sittard
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.42.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fortuna Sittard is the favourite, not a value bet.
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
| Probability | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Telstar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.1% | 23.9% | 27.1% |
| Market | 45.9% | 25.9% | 28.1% |
| Final | 46.7% | 25.4% | 27.8% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
Why Fortuna Sittard
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 46.7% × 2.11 − 1).
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar match preview
Fortuna Sittard faces Telstar in an Eredivisie clash with Fortuna holding a 48% probability of winning, while both teams share a 26% chance of a draw or a Telstar victory. The expected goals for Fortuna Sittard stand at 1.99, compared to Telstar's 1.30, indicating a potential edge for the home side. Recent form shows Fortuna Sittard with a mixed record of D-W-D-D-W-L, while Telstar has struggled, registering L-L-L-D-L-D in their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Fortuna Sittard, with a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a similar probability for both teams to score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has secured one victory, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortuna Sittard and Telstar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Fortuna Sittard and Telstar attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Sittard
Telstar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 46.7% | 2.14 | +0.8% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 46.7% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Telstar | 27.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% |
| No | 34.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Sittard win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 50.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar stats
Fortuna Sittard and Telstar recent form
| Fortuna Sittard |
DDWDDW |
| Telstar |
WLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Sittard and Telstar season so far
Fortuna Sittard record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Telstar record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | Eredivisie | 1-4 |
| 2025-09-14 | Telstar | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2018-02-16 | Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2017-09-29 | Telstar | Fortuna Sittard | Eerste Divisie | 0-6 |
| 2017-01-20 | Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2016-08-12 | Telstar | Fortuna Sittard | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 25.9%, away 28.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.66 | 3.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.11 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.74 | 3.39 |
| SBO | 2.03 | 3.20 | 2.91 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .