AZ Alkmaar
vs
Groningen
Garuda Lions Prediction: AZ Alkmaar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.42.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AZ Alkmaar is the favourite, not a value bet.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
| Probability | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 23.2% | 25.8% |
| Market | 62.2% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| Final | 59.4% | 21.1% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.7% | +2.1% |
Why AZ Alkmaar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.42.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 59.4% × 1.55 − 1).
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen match preview
AZ Alkmaar hosts Groningen in what promises to be an intriguing Eredivisie clash. According to our model, AZ Alkmaar holds a 59% probability of winning, while Groningen has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of AZ Alkmaar, with an expected goals tally of 2.08 for AZ and 1.38 for Groningen. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with AZ Alkmaar recording two losses and a win in their last five matches, while Groningen has two wins and a draw in their recent outings.
In their last two encounters, both teams have secured one victory each, indicating a competitive rivalry. Our model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 66%. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the expected outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen attack and defence ratings
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 59.4% | 1.68 | -2.8% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 59.4% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| Groningen | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen stats
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen recent form
| AZ Alkmaar |
LLLWDW |
| Groningen |
LLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen season so far
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Groningen record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Groningen | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | AZ Alkmaar | Groningen | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.2%, draw 20.4%, away 17.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.64 | 5.52 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.72 | 5.44 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 4.08 | 4.79 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .