Garuda Lions
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Eredivisie · ·Matchday 12

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

Garuda Lions Prediction: ADO Den Haag

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — ADO Den Haag is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on ADO Den Haag

Bingoal Stadion, The Hague

ADO Den Haag 40%
Draw 25%
Sparta Rotterdam 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance ADO Den Haag wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
73%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityADO Den HaagDrawSparta Rotterdam
Model44.3%22.6%33.1%
Market38.3%26.0%35.7%
Final39.8%25.2%35.1%
Edge+1.5%-0.9%-0.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (our 39.8% × 2.55 − 1).

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam match preview

ADO Den Haag faces Sparta Rotterdam in an Eredivisie clash on November 7, 2026. ADO Den Haag has a 44% probability of winning, while Sparta Rotterdam's chances stand at 32%, with a 24% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of ADO Den Haag, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals for ADO Den Haag is 2.45, compared to 1.67 for Sparta Rotterdam.

In terms of recent form, ADO Den Haag has recorded a series of results with a draw, loss, win, draw, draw, and loss, while Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches include a draw, loss, win, draw, loss, and loss. The model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 75%. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ADO Den Haag ↓ / Sparta Rotterd → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam expected goals

ADO Den Haag 2.06
Sparta Rotterdam 1.77

Total expected goals: 3.83

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam attack and defence ratings

ADO Den Haag

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 ADO Den Haag 39.8% 2.51 +1.5% 2.55
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.6% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.2% 1.37 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.7% 1.80 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ADO Den Haag39.8%
Draw25.2%
Sparta Rotterdam35.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.6%
Under 2.526.4%
Both teams to scoreYes73.2%
No26.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.9%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)60.2%
Handicap -1ADO Den Haag win25.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss55.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.7%
2-18.1%
2-27.2%
Compare prices for this pick

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam stats

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam recent form

newest first
ADO Den Haag LDLWDD
Sparta Rotterdam WDLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam season so far

league record

ADO Den Haag record

  • They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sparta Rotterdam record

  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1ADO Den Haag wins 4Draws 5Sparta Rotterdam wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-12ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs0-2
2025-03-19ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs0-2
2024-07-13Sparta RotterdamADO Den HaagFriendlies Clubs1-1
2023-12-20ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamKNVB Beker2-0
2023-08-01ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs1-2
2022-12-04ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs0-3
2021-01-31ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamEredivisie1-1
2020-11-22Sparta RotterdamADO Den HaagEredivisie6-0
2020-10-28ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamKNVB Beker1-1
2020-09-04Sparta RotterdamADO Den HaagFriendlies Clubs1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.3%, draw 26.0%, away 35.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.51 3.66 2.70
Bet365 2.55 3.60 2.62
BetVictor 2.45 3.70 2.55
Betano 2.45 3.60 2.75
Betfair 2.45 3.60 2.63
Dafabet 2.48 3.70 2.75
Marathonbet 2.43 3.54 2.62
Pinnacle 2.52 3.62 2.67
SBO 2.31 3.29 2.42
William Hill 2.40 3.40 2.60
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▲ +0.15
X 3.60 —
2 2.62 ▼ -0.08

24 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 ADO Den Haag Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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