Willem II
vs
PEC Zwolle
Garuda Lions Prediction: PEC Zwolle
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.63.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — PEC Zwolle is the favourite, not a value bet.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
| Probability | Willem II | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 22.6% | 48.3% |
| Market | 28.7% | 26.1% | 45.2% |
| Final | 28.8% | 25.2% | 46.0% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.9% | +0.8% |
Why PEC Zwolle
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.63.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.2% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 2.17 − 1).
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle match preview
Willem II faces PEC Zwolle in an Eredivisie clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Willem II has struggled lately, recording one win in their last six matches, while PEC Zwolle has managed two wins in their last six. The expected goals for this match suggest a competitive encounter, with Willem II projected at 1.63 and PEC Zwolle at 2.11.
The probabilities indicate a 31% chance for a Willem II win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 44% chance for a PEC Zwolle victory. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-2, with a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 71%. Historically, the last ten encounters show a balanced rivalry, with Willem II securing three wins, PEC Zwolle four, and three matches ending in a draw.
Willem II and PEC Zwolle team news
Willem II news
- A. Lachkar — groin injury
- J. Hoogma — knee injury
PEC Zwolle news
- F. Krastev — achilles tendon injury
- G. Rahajaan — inactive
- S. Floranus — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Willem II and PEC Zwolle expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Willem II and PEC Zwolle attack and defence ratings
Willem II
PEC Zwolle
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PEC Zwolle | 46.0% | 2.17 | +0.8% | 2.17 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Willem II | 28.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| PEC Zwolle | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% |
| No | 28.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | PEC Zwolle win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle stats
Willem II and PEC Zwolle recent form
| Willem II |
LWLLLL |
| PEC Zwolle |
WLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Willem II and PEC Zwolle season so far
Willem II record
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
PEC Zwolle record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-14 | Willem II | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-13 | PEC Zwolle | Willem II | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-10 | Willem II | PEC Zwolle | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2022-09-09 | PEC Zwolle | Willem II | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
| 2022-01-14 | PEC Zwolle | Willem II | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2021-08-28 | Willem II | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-22 | Willem II | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2020-10-24 | PEC Zwolle | Willem II | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2020-01-26 | Willem II | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2019-08-02 | PEC Zwolle | Willem II | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.7%, draw 26.1%, away 45.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.25 | 3.66 | 2.17 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.70 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.34 | 3.81 | 2.13 |
| SBO | 3.08 | 3.36 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .