PSV Eindhoven
vs
Willem II
Garuda Lions Prediction: PSV Eindhoven
3 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.30 vs 0.84.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — PSV Eindhoven is the favourite, not a value bet.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
| Probability | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.4% | 11.1% | 5.5% |
| Market | 89.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% |
| Final | 87.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +1.0% | +0.5% |
Why PSV Eindhoven
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.30 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 87.7% × 1.08 − 1).
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II match preview
PSV Eindhoven is heavily favored in their upcoming match against Willem II, with a probability of 88% for a win according to our model. The expected goals for PSV stand at 3.49, while Willem II is projected to score only 0.86. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with an occurrence rate of 9%.
Recent form shows PSV Eindhoven with a mixed record of W-L-L-W-L-W, while Willem II has struggled significantly, recording five losses and one draw in their last six matches. There is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 81%, and both teams to score has a probability of 56%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.15
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II attack and defence ratings
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 87.7% | 1.14 | -1.4% | 1.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.8% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 87.7% |
| Draw | 8.1% | |
| Willem II | 4.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 91.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 12.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 67.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 16.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.5% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II stats
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II recent form
| PSV Eindhoven |
DWLLWL |
| Willem II |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II season so far
PSV Eindhoven record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Willem II record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 89.2%, draw 7.1%, away 3.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.04 | 18.00 | 34.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.06 | 13.00 | 21.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.06 | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| Betano | 1.08 | 11.50 | 27.00 |
| Betfair | 1.05 | 15.00 | 26.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.04 | 13.50 | 25.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.06 | 14.57 | 20.17 |
| William Hill | 1.06 | 13.00 | 26.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .