Feyenoord
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Garuda Lions Prediction: Feyenoord
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.25.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Feyenoord is the favourite, not a value bet.
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
| Probability | Feyenoord | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.7% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| Market | 82.5% | 11.2% | 6.3% |
| Final | 77.8% | 13.3% | 8.9% |
| Edge | -4.7% | +2.1% | +2.7% |
Why Feyenoord
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (our 77.8% × 1.16 − 1).
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard match preview
Feyenoord enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 81%, while Fortuna Sittard has an 8% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Expected goals suggest that Feyenoord will generate 2.96, compared to Fortuna Sittard's 1.29, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Feyenoord winning five of their last six matches, while Fortuna Sittard has had a mixed run with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six outings. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Feyenoord has won both, further emphasizing their dominance in this matchup. The model also indicates an 80% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard attack and defence ratings
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feyenoord | 77.8% | 1.29 | -4.7% | 1.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feyenoord | 77.8% |
| Draw | 13.3% | |
| Fortuna Sittard | 8.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win | 43.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 36.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard stats
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard recent form
| Feyenoord |
DLWWWW |
| Fortuna Sittard |
WDDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard season so far
Feyenoord record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Fortuna Sittard record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Fortuna Sittard | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-17 | Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 82.5%, draw 11.2%, away 6.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 9.50 | 16.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 8.50 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.16 | 8.00 | 15.50 |
| Betfair | 1.12 | 8.50 | 15.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.13 | 8.30 | 14.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.56 | 14.17 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 8.00 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .