Telstar
vs
Utrecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Utrecht
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Utrecht is the favourite, not a value bet.
Telstar vs Utrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Telstar vs Utrecht
| Probability | Telstar | Draw | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.1% | 22.6% | 35.3% |
| Market | 34.1% | 25.3% | 40.6% |
| Final | 36.1% | 24.6% | 39.3% |
| Edge | +2.0% | -0.7% | -1.3% |
Why Utrecht
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.38 − 1).
Telstar vs Utrecht match preview
Telstar faces Utrecht in an Eredivisie matchup with Telstar holding a 36% probability of winning, while Utrecht has a 39% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. Both teams are expected to contribute to an entertaining match, with a 74% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and the same percentage for both teams to score.
Telstar's recent form shows a struggle, with five consecutive matches without a win (L-L-D-L-D-L), while Utrecht has fared better, recording two wins and a draw in their last three matches (D-W-W-L-W-D). The expected goals for Telstar stand at 2.02, while Utrecht's is slightly lower at 1.84, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Telstar and Utrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.87
Telstar and Utrecht attack and defence ratings
Telstar
Utrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard — team news & stats
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
- Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen — match page
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar — team news & stats
- Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles
- PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag — match page
- Excelsior vs Twente — team news & stats
- Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam — match page
Before and after this match
Telstar vs Utrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 39.3% | 2.54 | -1.3% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telstar | 36.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Utrecht | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% |
| No | 26.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 64.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.6% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Telstar vs Utrecht stats
Telstar and Utrecht recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Telstar and Utrecht season so far
Telstar record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Utrecht record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Telstar vs Utrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Utrecht | Telstar | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Telstar | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Telstar vs Utrecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 25.3%, away 40.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 3.84 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.70 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.72 | 2.31 |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 3.61 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .