Twente
vs
Ajax
Garuda Lions Prediction: Twente
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.49.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Twente vs Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Twente vs Ajax
| Probability | Twente | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.5% | 21.5% | 24.0% |
| Market | 42.0% | 24.4% | 33.6% |
| Final | 45.1% | 23.7% | 31.2% |
| Edge | +3.1% | -0.7% | -2.4% |
Why Twente
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.49.
- The market prices Twente below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.2% per unit staked (our 45.1% × 2.31 − 1).
Twente vs Ajax match preview
Twente faces Ajax in an Eredivisie clash on November 8, 2026. Twente's recent form shows three wins, one loss, and one draw, while Ajax has four wins, one loss, and one draw in their last six matches. The probabilities indicate a 43% chance for a Twente win, a 23% chance for a draw, and a 34% chance for Ajax to take the victory.
Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Twente, with an expected goals tally of 2.35 for Twente and 1.34 for Ajax. There is a 71% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams will score in this encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Twente and Ajax expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.77
Twente and Ajax attack and defence ratings
Twente
Ajax
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — team news & stats
- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
- Heerenveen v Feyenoord — match page
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Twente vs Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 45.1% | 2.22 | +3.1% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 45.1% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Ajax | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% |
| No | 29.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Twente vs Ajax stats
Twente and Ajax recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Twente and Ajax season so far
Twente record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ajax record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Twente vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Ajax | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Twente | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Twente vs Ajax odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.0%, draw 24.4%, away 33.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.94 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.82 | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.84 | 2.90 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.43 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .