Heerenveen
vs
Feyenoord
Garuda Lions Prediction: Feyenoord
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Feyenoord is the favourite, not a value bet.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
| Probability | Heerenveen | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 25.2% | 26.4% |
| Market | 22.5% | 21.8% | 55.6% |
| Final | 29.0% | 22.7% | 48.3% |
| Edge | +6.5% | +0.8% | -7.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.9% per unit staked (our 48.3% × 1.74 − 1).
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord match preview
Heerenveen hosts Feyenoord in an Eredivisie clash where the probabilities suggest a competitive match. Heerenveen has a 27% chance of winning, while Feyenoord leads with a 50% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 62% chance of both teams scoring and a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Heerenveen with four wins in their last six matches, while Feyenoord has recorded three wins in their last six. The expected goals for Heerenveen stand at 1.60, slightly higher than Feyenoord's 1.43. In their last three encounters, Heerenveen has secured one win, alongside one draw and one win for Feyenoord, indicating a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heerenveen and Feyenoord expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Heerenveen and Feyenoord attack and defence ratings
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feyenoord | 48.3% | 2.07 | -7.3% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 29.0% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Feyenoord | 48.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win | 11.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.8% | |
| Loss | 73.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord stats
Heerenveen and Feyenoord recent form
| Heerenveen |
WWWWLW |
| Feyenoord |
LDDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heerenveen and Feyenoord season so far
Heerenveen record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Feyenoord record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Heerenveen | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-17 | Feyenoord | Heerenveen | KNVB Beker | 2-3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Feyenoord | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.5%, draw 21.8%, away 55.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.38 | 4.34 | 1.71 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 4.10 | 4.33 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 4.40 | 1.74 |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 4.20 | 1.66 |
| Pinnacle | 4.23 | 4.39 | 1.70 |
| SBO | 3.63 | 3.83 | 1.63 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .