Heerenveen
vs
Excelsior
4 – 0 Full time
| 11′ | Dylan Vente | ||
| 43′ | Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson | ||
| 45′ | David GardenMario Domínguez Franco | ||
| 54′ | Oliver Johansen Braude | ||
| 66′ | Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonIlano Silva Timas | ||
| 66′ | Aymen slitiValentin Sulzbacher | ||
| 66′ | Simon JanssenOsman Turay | ||
| 73′ | Maxence RiveraMarko Farji | ||
| 77′ | Eric da Silva MoreiraNoah Naujoks | ||
| 82′ | Nolhan courtensLuca Oyen | ||
| 82′ | Levi SmansRingo Meerveld | ||
| 82′ | Dylan VenteRoberts Uldriķis | ||
| 84′ | Luca Oyen | ||
| 86′ | Maas WillemsenHristiyan Petrov | ||
| 88′ | Jacob Trenskow |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 444 | Accurate passes | 399 |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heerenveen vs Excelsior
| Probability | Heerenveen | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.5% | 25.1% | 33.3% |
| Market | 60.6% | 21.4% | 18.0% |
| Final | 55.8% | 22.3% | 21.9% |
| Edge | -4.8% | +0.9% | +3.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heerenveen and Excelsior expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Heerenveen and Excelsior attack and defence ratings
Heerenveen
Excelsior
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: result vs prediction
Heerenveen 4 – 0 Excelsior
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heerenveen vs Excelsior markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 55.8% | 1.79 | -4.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 55.8% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Excelsior | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% |
| No | 34.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior stats
Heerenveen and Excelsior recent form
| Heerenveen |
LWDLDL |
| Excelsior |
LDLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heerenveen and Excelsior going into this match
Heerenveen record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Excelsior | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Heerenveen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2024-01-19 | Excelsior | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2023-09-23 | Heerenveen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2023-05-13 | Heerenveen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-05 | Excelsior | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2022-07-30 | Heerenveen | Excelsior | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2019-10-30 | Excelsior | Heerenveen | KNVB Beker | 0-3 |
| 2019-03-30 | Heerenveen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.1%, draw 21.5%, away 18.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.46 | 5.31 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.64 | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.33 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.62 | 5.26 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 4.10 | 4.45 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .