Heerenveen
vs
Excelsior
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heerenveen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Heerenveen vs Excelsior overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heerenveen vs Excelsior
| Probability | Heerenveen | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.7% | 26.0% | 36.3% |
| Market | 53.8% | 23.2% | 23.0% |
| Final | 49.8% | 23.9% | 26.3% |
| Edge | -16.1% | +2.8% | +13.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heerenveen and Excelsior expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Heerenveen and Excelsior attack and defence ratings
Heerenveen
Excelsior
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Heerenveen vs Excelsior markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 49.8% | 2.01 | -16.1% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 49.8% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Excelsior | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 67.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior stats
Heerenveen and Excelsior recent form
| Heerenveen |
LWDLDL |
| Excelsior |
DLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heerenveen and Excelsior season so far
Heerenveen record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Excelsior | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Heerenveen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.8%, draw 23.2%, away 23.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 4.12 | 4.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.33 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .