Cambuur
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Garuda Lions Prediction: AZ Alkmaar
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
| Probability | Cambuur | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.9% | 24.5% | 50.6% |
| Market | 15.9% | 19.7% | 64.3% |
| Final | 18.2% | 20.9% | 60.9% |
| Edge | +8.9% | +4.8% | -13.7% |
Why AZ Alkmaar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar match preview
In the upcoming Eredivisie match, Cambuur faces AZ Alkmaar, with probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Our model assigns Cambuur a 16% chance of winning, while AZ Alkmaar stands at 64%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Cambuur will score 1.31 and AZ Alkmaar 1.87.
Recent form shows Cambuur with a record of W-D-W-D-L-L, while AZ Alkmaar has performed better with L-W-L-D-W-W. Additionally, there is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar team news
Cambuur news
- D. Visser — knee injury
- J. Amofa — injury
- W. Asselman — injury
AZ Alkmaar news
- J. Hornkamp — injury
- K. Smit — injury
- S. Resink — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings
Cambuur
AZ Alkmaar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 60.9% | 1.64 | -13.7% | 1.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cambuur | 18.2% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 60.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar stats
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar recent form
| Cambuur |
WDWDLL |
| AZ Alkmaar |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar season so far
Cambuur record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-25 | AZ Alkmaar | Cambuur | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-28 | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2022-01-22 | AZ Alkmaar | Cambuur | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-03 | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2017-03-02 | AZ Alkmaar | Cambuur | KNVB Beker | 0-0 |
| 2016-01-27 | AZ Alkmaar | Cambuur | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2015-10-17 | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2015-03-21 | AZ Alkmaar | Cambuur | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2014-11-29 | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2014-03-30 | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.0%, draw 19.4%, away 64.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.24 | 4.90 | 1.48 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.48 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.80 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 6.00 | 4.90 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 5.00 | 1.49 |
| Marathonbet | 6.05 | 4.75 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 5.82 | 5.02 | 1.49 |
| SBO | 5.03 | 4.31 | 1.40 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .