Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Willem II
3 – 2 Full time
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
| Probability | Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.5% | 22.9% | 27.6% |
| Market | 59.9% | 21.5% | 18.6% |
| Final | 57.3% | 21.8% | 20.9% |
| Edge | -10.4% | +1.4% | +9.0% |
Why Sparta Rotterdam
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.53.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II attack and defence ratings
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: result vs prediction
Sparta Rotterdam 3 – 2 Willem II
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Rotterdam | 57.3% | 1.74 | -10.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Rotterdam | 57.3% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Willem II | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% |
| No | 30.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Rotterdam win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II stats
Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II recent form
| Sparta Rotterdam |
DLLDLD |
| Willem II |
LLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II going into this match
Sparta Rotterdam record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Willem II record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam | KNVB Beker | 1-5 |
| 2025-07-26 | Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | Eredivisie | 4-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-27 | Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs | 2-4 |
| 2023-07-29 | Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs | 0-3 |
| 2022-07-20 | Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
| 2022-02-13 | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2021-11-06 | Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 21.3%, away 19.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 4.44 | 5.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 4.35 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.30 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.64 | 5.13 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.82 | 4.01 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .