Groningen
vs
Ajax
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ajax
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Groningen vs Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Groningen vs Ajax
| Probability | Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.8% | 20.9% | 40.4% |
| Market | 27.0% | 23.0% | 50.0% |
| Final | 29.9% | 22.5% | 47.6% |
| Edge | +11.7% | -2.1% | -9.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Groningen vs Ajax match preview
Groningen faces Ajax in an Eredivisie matchup, with Ajax holding a 53% probability of winning compared to Groningen's 26% and a 21% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is high at 82%, and both teams scoring is anticipated at 80%.
In terms of expected goals, Groningen is projected to score 2.08 while Ajax is forecasted at 2.36. Recent form shows Groningen with two wins, two draws, and two losses, while Ajax has two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. In their last three encounters, Groningen has one win, while Ajax has two victories. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Groningen and Ajax team news
Groningen news
- E. van der Laan — injury
- M. Jeng — leg injury
- T. Hernes — injury
- T. Mercera — injury
Ajax news
- A. Gaaei — injury
- Caio Henrique — thigh injury
- D. Blind — back injury
- K. Dolberg — knee injury
- S. Berghuis — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Groningen and Ajax expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.39
Groningen and Ajax attack and defence ratings
Groningen
Ajax
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Groningen vs Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 47.6% | 2.10 | -9.6% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 29.9% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Ajax | 47.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.6% |
| No | 20.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 59.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-2 | 6.6% | |
| 1-1 | 6.6% |
Groningen vs Ajax stats
Groningen and Ajax recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Groningen and Ajax season so far
Groningen record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Groningen vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Ajax | Groningen | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Groningen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-02 | Ajax | Groningen | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-14 | Groningen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-06 | Ajax | Groningen | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2023-05-16 | Groningen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2022-08-14 | Ajax | Groningen | Eredivisie | 6-1 |
| 2022-04-02 | Groningen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2021-09-25 | Ajax | Groningen | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2021-03-07 | Ajax | Groningen | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Groningen vs Ajax odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.3%, draw 23.0%, away 49.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 4.17 | 1.91 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 4.10 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 4.15 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 4.20 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 4.10 | 1.96 |
| Marathonbet | 3.50 | 4.05 | 1.85 |
| Pinnacle | 3.44 | 4.33 | 1.88 |
| SBO | 2.92 | 3.53 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .