KNVB Beker · 2026-10-27T19:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Round of 64

Roda vs De Graafschap

1 – 0 Full time

43′			K. Symons
46′			C. SeedorfJ. Sleegers
46′			L. BeertenL. Verheij
55′			J. Wieckhoff
60′			K. SymonsN. Martens
60′			J. WieckhoffT. Kok
68′			J. MensahM. Paulissen
69′			A. van den HurkF. Schenten
70′			N. Ahmeti
71′			N. AhmetiM. Diemers
82′			D. Van den BuijsM. Bentoumi
84′			M. Bentoumi
86′			J. KaniaK. Kwint
86′			N. KanindaB. van Zijl
90′			G. Bolk
90′			R. Besselink

Parkstad Limburg Stadion, KerkradeReferee: S. Teuben

Roda

44%

Draw

27%

De Graafschap

29%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	7
50	Possession %	50
8	Corners	4
13	Fouls	20
1	Offsides	1
8	Saves	2
377	Accurate passes	418

Roda vs De Graafschap overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Roda vs De Graafschap

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Roda	Draw	De Graafschap
Model	47.3%	29.4%	23.3%
Market	43.1%	26.4%	30.5%
Final	44.2%	27.1%	28.7%
Edge	+1.0%	+0.8%	-1.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Roda

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.93.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

89%

2+ goals

69%

3+ goals

42%

No goals

11%

Roda and De Graafschap expected goals

Roda

1.43

De Graafschap

0.93

Total expected goals: 2.35

Roda and De Graafschap attack and defence ratings

Roda

Attack

0.75 -25%

Defence

0.64 -36%

De Graafschap

Attack

0.72 -28%

Defence

0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Roda vs De Graafschap: result vs prediction

Roda 1 – 0 De Graafschap

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

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Before and after this match

Roda, previous: Almere City FC vs Roda prediction
Roda, next: Roda v Jong AZ analysis
De Graafschap, previous: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk: odds and pick
De Graafschap, next: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap: odds and pick

Roda vs De Graafschap markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Roda	44.2%	2.26	+1.0%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	58.2%	1.72	—	—
Both teams to score	No	52.8%	1.89	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.9%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	52.7%	1.90	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Roda	44.2%
	Draw	27.1%
	De Graafschap	28.7%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41.8%
	Under 2.5	58.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	47.2%
	No	52.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	71.3%
	12 (either side)	72.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	55.8%
Handicap -1	Roda win	23.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.5%
	Loss	52.7%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.8%
	1-0	12.3%
	0-0	10.8%

Roda vs De Graafschap stats

Roda and De Graafschap recent form

newest first

Roda	WWDLWD
De Graafschap	DLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Roda vs De Graafschap head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Roda wins 2Draws 4De Graafschap wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2025-12-12	De Graafschap	Roda	Eerste Divisie	2-3
2025-08-15	Roda	De Graafschap	Eerste Divisie	1-0
2025-04-06	De Graafschap	Roda	Eerste Divisie	2-0
2024-09-01	Roda	De Graafschap	Eerste Divisie	1-4
2024-04-19	Roda	De Graafschap	Eerste Divisie	1-1
2023-09-29	De Graafschap	Roda	Eerste Divisie	0-0
2023-02-19	De Graafschap	Roda	Eerste Divisie	2-0
2022-09-12	Roda	De Graafschap	Eerste Divisie	3-2
2022-07-30	De Graafschap	Roda	Friendlies Clubs	1-0
2022-03-14	Roda	De Graafschap	Eerste Divisie	2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Roda vs De Graafschap odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 26.4%, away 30.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.09	3.40	3.26
Bet365	2.20	3.50	3.00
BetVictor	2.10	3.50	3.00
Betano	2.18	3.50	3.05
Betfair	2.10	3.50	2.90
Dafabet	2.24	3.60	3.05
Marathonbet	2.07	3.40	3.24
Pinnacle	2.14	3.44	2.99
SBO	2.04	3.19	2.89
William Hill	2.15	3.40	2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.12 ▲ +0.12

X 3.47 ▼ -0.03

2 3.00 ▼ -0.30

2 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-27T08:10:01Z.