Roda
vs
Jong AZ
Garuda Lions Prediction: Roda
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.54.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Roda is the favourite, not a value bet.
Roda vs Jong AZ overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roda vs Jong AZ
| Probability | Roda | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.5% | 23.7% | 29.8% |
| Market | 55.2% | 22.2% | 22.6% |
| Final | 53.0% | 22.6% | 24.4% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +0.4% | +1.8% |
Why Roda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (our 53.0% × 1.70 − 1).
Roda vs Jong AZ match preview
Roda faces Jong AZ in the Eerste Divisie with a probability of winning set at 50% for Roda, while Jong AZ stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Roda, with an expected goals tally of 1.96 for Roda and 1.54 for Jong AZ. Both teams are projected to score, with a 68% likelihood for over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Roda has recorded two wins, a draw, a loss, and another win in their last six matches, while Jong AZ has a mixed record with two wins, two draws, and two losses. Historically, Roda has not secured a victory against Jong AZ in their last two encounters, with Jong AZ winning both matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roda and Jong AZ expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Roda and Jong AZ attack and defence ratings
Roda
Jong AZ
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roda vs Jong AZ markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roda | 53.0% | 1.89 | -2.2% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roda | 53.0% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Jong AZ | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% |
| No | 31.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roda win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Roda vs Jong AZ stats
Roda and Jong AZ recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roda and Jong AZ season so far
Roda record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong AZ record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
Roda vs Jong AZ head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Jong AZ | Roda | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Roda | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roda vs Jong AZ odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 22.2%, away 22.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.15 | 4.09 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 4.15 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.28 | 4.17 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .