Jong AZ
vs
Helmond Sport
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jong AZ
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport
| Probability | Jong AZ | Draw | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.9% | 20.2% | 21.8% |
| Market | 56.8% | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| Final | 57.1% | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -1.1% | -0.0% |
Why Jong AZ
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport match preview
Jong AZ is favored in their upcoming match against Helmond Sport, with a 57% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Jong AZ stand at 2.46, while Helmond Sport is projected at 1.50. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 72%.
In terms of recent form, Jong AZ has recorded a mixed set of results with a sequence of D-L-W-D-L-W, while Helmond Sport has struggled, posting L-L-D-L-L-W in their last matches. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows one win for each team, indicating a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong AZ and Helmond Sport expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.96
Jong AZ and Helmond Sport attack and defence ratings
Jong AZ
Helmond Sport
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 57.1% | 1.75 | +1.1% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 57.1% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| Helmond Sport | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.7% |
| No | 28.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong AZ win | 38.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 1-1 | 7.7% | |
| 3-1 | 7.1% |
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport stats
Jong AZ and Helmond Sport recent form
| Jong AZ |
DLWDLW |
| Helmond Sport |
LLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong AZ and Helmond Sport season so far
Jong AZ record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
Helmond Sport record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Jong AZ | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Helmond Sport | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.8%, draw 21.3%, away 21.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.35 | 4.24 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 4.35 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.37 | 4.27 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .