Eerste Divisie
·
·Matchday 11
Helmond Sport
vs
NAC Breda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Helmond Sport
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Helmond Sport
43%
Draw
23%
NAC Breda
34%
Chance Helmond Sport wins
43%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
71%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda
| Probability | Helmond Sport | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 23.5% | 33.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.0% | 23.5% | 33.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Helmond Sport and NAC Breda expected goals
Helmond Sport
1.74
NAC Breda
1.79
Total expected goals: 3.53
Helmond Sport and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings
Helmond Sport
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
1.08 +8%
NAC Breda
Attack
1.13 +13%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 43.0% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| NAC Breda | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% |
| No | 29.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Helmond Sport win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda stats
Helmond Sport and NAC Breda recent form
| Helmond Sport |
LDLLWW |
| NAC Breda |
WDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Helmond Sport and NAC Breda season so far
Helmond Sport record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NAC Breda record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.