Emmen vs Almere City FC Prediction — 17 Oct 2026

Emmen vs Almere City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Emmen vs Almere City FC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Emmen	Draw	Almere City FC
Model	25.9%	25.3%	48.9%
Market	43.2%	24.5%	32.4%
Final	38.9%	24.7%	36.5%
Edge	-17.3%	+0.8%	+16.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

82%

3+ goals

59%

No goals

6%

Emmen and Almere City FC expected goals

Emmen

1.26

Almere City FC

1.80

Total expected goals: 3.06

Emmen and Almere City FC attack and defence ratings

Emmen

Attack

1.16 +16%

Defence

1.03 +3%

Almere City FC

Attack

1.19 +19%

Defence

0.61 -39%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Emmen vs Almere City FC: result vs prediction

Emmen 2 – 1 Almere City FC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

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Before and after this match

Emmen, previous: Dordrecht v Emmen analysis
Emmen, next: Vitesse vs Emmen prediction
Almere City FC, previous: Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven analysis
Almere City FC, next: Almere City FC vs Roda prediction

Emmen vs Almere City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Emmen	38.9%	2.57	-17.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.0%	1.70	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	60.9%	1.64	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.3%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	74.1%	1.35	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Emmen	38.9%
	Draw	24.7%
	Almere City FC	36.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.0%
	Under 2.5	41.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	60.9%
	No	39.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	63.5%
	12 (either side)	75.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	61.1%
Handicap -1	Emmen win	11.2%
	Push (exactly one goal)	14.7%
	Loss	74.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.7%
	1-2	9.6%
	0-2	7.6%

Emmen vs Almere City FC stats

Emmen and Almere City FC recent form

newest first

Emmen	WDWLLW
Almere City FC	WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Emmen and Almere City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Emmen record

They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Almere City FC record

They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Emmen vs Almere City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Emmen wins 3Draws 5Almere City FC wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-08-01	Emmen	Almere City FC	Friendlies Clubs	4-0
2025-12-20	Almere City FC	Emmen	Eerste Divisie	4-2
2025-08-17	Emmen	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	1-4
2023-06-11	Emmen	Almere City FC	Eredivisie	1-2
2023-06-06	Almere City FC	Emmen	Eredivisie	2-0
2022-02-11	Almere City FC	Emmen	Eerste Divisie	0-0
2021-11-29	Emmen	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	3-0
2018-03-25	Almere City FC	Emmen	Eerste Divisie	2-2
2017-11-17	Emmen	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	2-2
2017-02-06	Almere City FC	Emmen	Eerste Divisie	3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Emmen vs Almere City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 24.6%, away 32.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.13	3.84	2.86
Bet365	2.15	4.00	2.88
BetVictor	2.15	3.75	2.80
Betano	2.22	3.65	2.92
Betfair	2.20	3.90	2.80
Dafabet	2.25	3.80	2.90
Marathonbet	2.11	3.84	2.84
Pinnacle	2.25	3.61	3.04
SBO	2.12	3.38	2.61
William Hill	2.15	3.50	2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 —

X 3.79 ▲ +0.14

2 2.87 ▼ -0.02

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-11T08:10:02Z.