MVV
vs
Heracles
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heracles
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
MVV vs Heracles overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MVV vs Heracles
| Probability | MVV | Draw | Heracles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.9% | 20.2% | 64.9% |
| Market | 15.1% | 19.0% | 66.0% |
| Final | 15.0% | 19.3% | 65.7% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +1.3% | -1.1% |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
MVV vs Heracles match preview
In the upcoming Eerste Divisie match, MVV faces Heracles with a predicted scoreline of 1-2, which has a likelihood of 10%. MVV's recent form shows a challenging run with two losses, a win, and a draw in their last five matches, while Heracles has been more consistent, recording three wins, a draw, and a loss in the same period.
The expected goals indicate a significant difference in attacking performance, with MVV projected to score 1.06 and Heracles at 2.32. Our model suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 60%. The overall match probabilities show MVV at 15%, a draw at 19%, and Heracles leading at 66%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
MVV and Heracles expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
MVV and Heracles attack and defence ratings
MVV
Heracles
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
MVV vs Heracles markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 65.7% | 1.52 | -1.1% | 1.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MVV | 15.0% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| Heracles | 65.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 43.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 35.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 0-2 | 9.2% | |
| 1-1 | 9.2% |
MVV vs Heracles stats
MVV and Heracles recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
MVV and Heracles season so far
MVV record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heracles record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MVV vs Heracles head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-13 | MVV | Heracles | Eerste Divisie | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-29 | Heracles | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
MVV vs Heracles odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.1%, draw 18.9%, away 65.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.31 | 4.95 | 1.39 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 6.20 | 4.65 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.46 |
| Marathonbet | 6.25 | 4.95 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 6.02 | 5.13 | 1.40 |
| SBO | 5.32 | 4.27 | 1.38 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .