Jong PSV U21
vs
Dordrecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jong PSV U21
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht
| Probability | Jong PSV U21 | Draw | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.8% | 21.9% | 18.4% |
| Market | 44.3% | 24.0% | 31.6% |
| Final | 48.2% | 23.5% | 28.3% |
| Edge | +15.5% | -2.2% | -13.3% |
Why Jong PSV U21
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.15.
- The market prices Jong PSV U21 below the model: +15.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht match preview
Jong PSV U21 faces Dordrecht in an Eerste Divisie matchup on October 19, 2026. According to our model, Jong PSV U21 has a 48% probability of winning, while Dordrecht stands at 28%, and the likelihood of a draw is 24%. The expected goals for Jong PSV U21 is 2.18, compared to Dordrecht's 1.15, suggesting a potentially dominant performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
Recent form indicates Jong PSV U21 has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Dordrecht has struggled, with one win and four losses in the same period. In their last two encounters, Jong PSV U21 has secured one win and one draw against Dordrecht, who has yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht attack and defence ratings
Jong PSV U21
Dordrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong PSV U21 | 48.2% | 2.08 | +15.5% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong PSV U21 | 48.2% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Dordrecht | 28.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong PSV U21 win | 38.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 40.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht stats
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht recent form
| Jong PSV U21 |
DLDLWD |
| Dordrecht |
LDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht season so far
Jong PSV U21 record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Dordrecht record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Jong PSV U21 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Dordrecht | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 23.9%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 3.92 | 2.95 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.90 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.75 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.90 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.92 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.84 | 2.97 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .