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Eerste Divisie · ·Matchday 13

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda

Garuda Lions Prediction: NAC Breda

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.34.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — NAC Breda is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on NAC Breda

De Herdgang, Eindhoven

Jong PSV U21 22%
Draw 22%
NAC Breda 56%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance NAC Breda wins
56%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
61%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJong PSV U21DrawNAC Breda
Model29.2%25.9%44.9%
Market19.6%20.4%60.0%
Final22.0%21.8%56.2%
Edge+2.4%+1.4%-3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why NAC Breda

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.34.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (our 56.2% × 1.60 − 1).

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda match preview

Jong PSV U21 faces NAC Breda in the Eerste Divisie with probabilities indicating a 25% chance for a Jong PSV U21 win, a 23% likelihood for a draw, and a 52% chance for NAC Breda to secure victory. The expected goals for Jong PSV U21 stand at 1.39, while NAC Breda is projected at 1.58. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.

In terms of recent form, Jong PSV U21 has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, NAC Breda has shown stronger performance, with four wins and two draws in their last six outings. Additionally, there is a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 61% likelihood.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Jong PSV U21 ↓ / NAC Breda → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 12% 9% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda expected goals

Jong PSV U21 1.34
NAC Breda 1.70

Total expected goals: 3.04

Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings

Jong PSV U21

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.96 -4%

NAC Breda

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NAC Breda 56.2% 1.78 -3.8% 1.60
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.6% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.4% 1.63 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.2% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.1% 1.82 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Jong PSV U2122.0%
Draw21.8%
NAC Breda56.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%
Both teams to scoreYes61.4%
No38.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)43.8%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)78.0%
Handicap -1NAC Breda win24.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss55.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.0%
1-29.3%
2-17.3%
Compare prices for this pick

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda stats

Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda recent form

newest first
Jong PSV U21 WLDLDL
NAC Breda WDWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda season so far

league record

Jong PSV U21 record

  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

NAC Breda record

  • They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.6%, draw 20.4%, away 60.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.66 4.55 1.55
Bet365 4.75 4.50 1.57
BetVictor 4.75 4.50 1.53
Betano 4.70 4.40 1.60
Betfair 4.60 4.60 1.55
Dafabet 4.80 4.70 1.59
Marathonbet 4.70 4.55 1.53
Pinnacle 4.82 4.65 1.53
William Hill 4.75 4.33 1.55
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.75 ▲ +0.61
X 4.55 ▲ +0.33
2 1.55 ▼ -0.11

7 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 NAC Breda Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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