Dordrecht
vs
NAC Breda
Garuda Lions Prediction: NAC Breda
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.36.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — NAC Breda is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
| Probability | Dordrecht | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 19.0% | 63.2% |
| Market | 16.7% | 19.4% | 63.8% |
| Final | 17.0% | 19.3% | 63.7% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
Why NAC Breda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (our 63.7% × 1.57 − 1).
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda match preview
Dordrecht faces NAC Breda in the Eerste Divisie with contrasting recent forms. Dordrecht has recorded three losses in their last five matches, alongside a win and a draw, while NAC Breda has been more successful, winning four of their last five encounters and drawing the other. The probabilities indicate a 19% chance for a Dordrecht win, a 20% chance for a draw, and a 61% likelihood of NAC Breda securing the victory.
The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for NAC Breda, with 2.59 compared to Dordrecht's 1.36. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record is evenly matched, with each team having four wins in their last nine encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dordrecht and NAC Breda expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.95
Dordrecht and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings
Dordrecht
NAC Breda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 63.7% | 1.57 | -0.2% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dordrecht | 17.0% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| NAC Breda | 63.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% |
| No | 30.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win | 43.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 36.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-3 | 7.6% | |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda stats
Dordrecht and NAC Breda recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dordrecht and NAC Breda season so far
Dordrecht record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
NAC Breda record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | NAC Breda | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
| 2023-08-11 | Dordrecht | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-02-24 | NAC Breda | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
| 2022-10-22 | Dordrecht | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 0-3 |
| 2022-04-22 | NAC Breda | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2021-11-05 | Dordrecht | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2021-02-19 | Dordrecht | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2020-12-06 | NAC Breda | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2019-12-21 | NAC Breda | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.7%, draw 19.4%, away 63.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.71 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.45 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 4.90 | 4.40 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.70 | 1.55 |
| Marathonbet | 5.65 | 4.75 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 5.52 | 5.13 | 1.48 |
| SBO | 4.56 | 3.98 | 1.48 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .