Jong Utrecht
vs
Dordrecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jong Utrecht
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.79.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht
| Probability | Jong Utrecht | Draw | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.3% | 19.1% | 24.6% |
| Market | 40.1% | 25.4% | 34.5% |
| Final | 44.1% | 23.8% | 32.0% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -1.6% | -2.5% |
Why Jong Utrecht
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.79.
- The market prices Jong Utrecht below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.9% per unit staked (our 44.1% × 2.40 − 1).
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht match preview
Jong Utrecht hosts Dordrecht in the Eerste Divisie, with Jong Utrecht holding a 44% probability of victory compared to Dordrecht's 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals indicate a strong offensive performance from Jong Utrecht at 2.57, while Dordrecht is forecasted at 1.70.
In terms of recent form, Jong Utrecht has experienced a challenging run with four losses followed by two wins, while Dordrecht's form includes two wins, one draw, and three losses. Historically, Jong Utrecht has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Dordrecht. The model suggests a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams scoring at 76%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.47
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht attack and defence ratings
Jong Utrecht
Dordrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Utrecht | 44.1% | 2.27 | +4.1% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Utrecht | 44.1% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Dordrecht | 32.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.2% |
| No | 21.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong Utrecht win | 37.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.4% |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | |
| 3-1 | 6.6% |
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht stats
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht recent form
| Jong Utrecht |
LLLLWW |
| Dordrecht |
LLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht season so far
Jong Utrecht record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Dordrecht record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Jong Utrecht | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Dordrecht | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.1%, draw 25.4%, away 34.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.64 | 2.66 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.72 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.64 | 2.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.63 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .