Den Bosch
vs
Jong Utrecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Den Bosch
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 1.58.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
| Probability | Den Bosch | Draw | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.1% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| Market | 58.5% | 20.9% | 20.7% |
| Final | 60.9% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| Edge | +2.4% | -1.3% | -1.2% |
Why Den Bosch
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Den Bosch below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 60.9% × 1.62 − 1).
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht match preview
Den Bosch enters this match with a strong recent form, having secured four wins and two draws in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 3.14, indicating a potent offensive capability. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with an 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% probability that both teams will score. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 3-1 in favor of Den Bosch.
In contrast, Jong Utrecht has struggled recently, recording four losses and only two wins in their last six games. Their expected goals are significantly lower at 1.50, reflecting challenges in their attacking play. Historically, Den Bosch has not fared well against Jong Utrecht, with no wins in their last two encounters, including one draw and one loss. The model gives Den Bosch a 70% probability of winning this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.73
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht attack and defence ratings
Den Bosch
Jong Utrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 60.9% | 1.64 | +2.4% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 60.9% |
| Draw | 19.6% | |
| Jong Utrecht | 19.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% |
| No | 23.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win | 50.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 31.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.3% |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | |
| 3-2 | 5.7% |
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht stats
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht recent form
| Den Bosch |
WWDWWD |
| Jong Utrecht |
WLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht season so far
Den Bosch record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Jong Utrecht record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Den Bosch | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Jong Utrecht | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
| 2025-01-27 | Den Bosch | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-16 | Jong Utrecht | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 0-3 |
| 2024-04-15 | Jong Utrecht | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 0-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Den Bosch | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-08 | Jong Utrecht | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2023-01-06 | Den Bosch | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
| 2022-04-18 | Jong Utrecht | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-29 | Den Bosch | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.5%, draw 20.9%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.40 | 4.47 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 4.53 | 4.61 |
| SBO | 1.55 | 4.02 | 3.98 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .