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Eerste Divisie · ·Matchday 14

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Eindhoven

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.62.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on FC Eindhoven

Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven

FC Eindhoven 45%
Draw 23%
Jong Ajax 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Eindhoven wins
45%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
72%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC EindhovenDrawJong Ajax
Model51.3%21.7%27.0%
Market43.2%23.8%33.0%
Final45.2%23.3%31.5%
Edge+2.0%-0.5%-1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Eindhoven

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.62.
  • The market prices FC Eindhoven below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (our 45.2% × 2.22 − 1).

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax match preview

FC Eindhoven faces Jong Ajax in the Eerste Divisie with a 47% probability of winning, while Jong Ajax stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of FC Eindhoven, with an expected goals tally of 2.25 for FC Eindhoven and 1.62 for Jong Ajax. Both teams show a strong tendency to score, with a 72% likelihood of both teams finding the net.

In terms of recent form, FC Eindhoven has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches, while Jong Ajax has managed two draws and one win in their last six. Historically, the head-to-head record favors FC Eindhoven, who have won four of their last ten encounters, compared to two wins for Jong Ajax and four draws. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Eindhoven ↓ / Jong Ajax → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 6% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax expected goals

FC Eindhoven 2.25
Jong Ajax 1.62

Total expected goals: 3.87

FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax attack and defence ratings

FC Eindhoven

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Jong Ajax

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Eindhoven 45.2% 2.21 +2.0% 2.22
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.2% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.5% 1.38 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.7% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Eindhoven45.2%
Draw23.3%
Jong Ajax31.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.2%
Under 2.525.8%
Both teams to scoreYes72.5%
No27.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.5%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)54.8%
Handicap -1FC Eindhoven win31.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.6%
Loss48.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.6%
1-18.4%
2-26.9%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax stats

FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax recent form

newest first
FC Eindhoven LWLLLD
Jong Ajax DDWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax season so far

league record

FC Eindhoven record

  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jong Ajax record

  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Eindhoven wins 4Draws 2Jong Ajax wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-06FC EindhovenJong AjaxEerste Divisie2-1
2025-11-21Jong AjaxFC EindhovenEerste Divisie1-3
2025-03-03Jong AjaxFC EindhovenEerste Divisie0-2
2024-08-24FC EindhovenJong AjaxEerste Divisie0-3
2023-12-23FC EindhovenJong AjaxEerste Divisie2-2
2023-09-25Jong AjaxFC EindhovenEerste Divisie1-1
2023-03-10FC EindhovenJong AjaxEerste Divisie5-1
2023-01-06Jong AjaxFC EindhovenEerste Divisie1-1
2022-03-18Jong AjaxFC EindhovenEerste Divisie2-2
2021-10-22FC EindhovenJong AjaxEerste Divisie1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 23.8%, away 33.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.13 3.90 2.83
Bet365 2.20 4.00 2.80
BetVictor 2.10 3.90 2.80
Betano 2.15 4.00 2.82
Betfair 2.10 3.90 2.88
Dafabet 2.22 3.95 2.90
Marathonbet 2.11 3.90 2.81
Pinnacle 2.17 4.06 2.96
SBO 2.16 3.42 2.53
William Hill 2.15 3.75 2.80
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 ▲ +0.14
X 3.90 ▼ -0.13
2 2.81 ▼ -0.29

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 FC Eindhoven Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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