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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 15

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven

1 – 2 Full time

Seacon Stadion De Koel, Venlo

VVV Venlo 62%
Draw 20%
FC Eindhoven 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven overview

Garuda Lions analysis: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVVV VenloDrawFC Eindhoven
Model71.1%15.4%13.5%
Market59.0%21.2%19.7%
Final62.1%19.8%18.2%
Edge+3.0%-1.5%-1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why VVV Venlo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.11 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices VVV Venlo below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

VVV Venlo ↓ / FC Eindhoven → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 7% 3 8% 4+ 9% 13% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 83%
No goals 2%

VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven expected goals

VVV Venlo 3.11
FC Eindhoven 1.39

Total expected goals: 4.50

VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven attack and defence ratings

VVV Venlo

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.97 -3%

FC Eindhoven

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven: result vs prediction

VVV Venlo 1 – 2 FC Eindhoven

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 VVV Venlo 62.1% 1.61 +3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82.7% 1.21 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.3% 1.38 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.8% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 VVV Venlo win 52.9% 1.89 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2VVV Venlo62.1%
Draw19.8%
FC Eindhoven18.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582.7%
Under 2.517.3%
Both teams to scoreYes72.3%
No27.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.8%
12 (either side)80.2%
X2 (draw or away)37.9%
Handicap -1VVV Venlo win52.9%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss28.8%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.7%
2-17.5%
4-16.0%

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven stats

VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven recent form

newest first
VVV Venlo DWLWDW
FC Eindhoven LLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven going into this match

league record before kick-off

VVV Venlo record

  • They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Eindhoven record

  • They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6VVV Venlo wins 3Draws 1FC Eindhoven wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07VVV VenloFC EindhovenEerste Divisie1-0
2025-10-24FC EindhovenVVV VenloEerste Divisie0-1
2025-03-22VVV VenloFC EindhovenEerste Divisie2-2
2024-12-13FC EindhovenVVV VenloEerste Divisie1-3
2024-02-23VVV VenloFC EindhovenEerste Divisie2-2
2023-11-10FC EindhovenVVV VenloEerste Divisie0-2
2023-04-14VVV VenloFC EindhovenEerste Divisie2-2
2022-12-16FC EindhovenVVV VenloEerste Divisie0-2
2022-03-11FC EindhovenVVV VenloEerste Divisie4-0
2021-11-19VVV VenloFC EindhovenEerste Divisie2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.0%, draw 21.2%, away 19.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.57 4.40 4.66
Bet365 1.60 4.33 4.75
BetVictor 1.57 4.20 4.75
Betano 1.60 4.25 4.70
Betfair 1.57 4.40 4.75
Dafabet 1.63 4.50 4.70
Marathonbet 1.55 4.40 4.70
Pinnacle 1.58 4.62 4.94
SBO 1.55 3.98 4.32
William Hill 1.57 4.20 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.57 ▼ -0.06
X 4.37 ▲ +0.07
2 4.70 ▲ +0.32

13 snapshots recorded, from .