Garuda Lions
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Eerste Divisie · ·Matchday 14

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21

Garuda Lions Prediction: VVV Venlo

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.12.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — VVV Venlo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on VVV Venlo

Seacon Stadion De Koel, Venlo

VVV Venlo 61%
Draw 20%
Jong PSV U21 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance VVV Venlo wins
61%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
63%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVVV VenloDrawJong PSV U21
Model66.6%18.9%14.5%
Market59.3%20.5%20.2%
Final61.1%20.1%18.8%
Edge+1.8%-0.4%-1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why VVV Venlo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.0% per unit staked (our 61.1% × 1.62 − 1).

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 match preview

VVV Venlo enters the match against Jong PSV U21 with a solid probability of winning at 60%, supported by a recent form of three wins in their last five matches. The expected goals for VVV Venlo stand at 2.49, indicating a strong offensive capability, while Jong PSV U21 is projected to score 1.12 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of VVV Venlo, occurring with a 9% probability.

In contrast, Jong PSV U21 has struggled recently, with only one win in their last five matches. Their head-to-head record against VVV Venlo shows a slight edge for Jong PSV U21 with five wins out of the last ten encounters. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 70%, and both teams to score is at 63%, suggesting an engaging contest ahead.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

VVV Venlo ↓ / Jong PSV U21 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 8% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 8% 9% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 expected goals

VVV Venlo 2.49
Jong PSV U21 1.12

Total expected goals: 3.61

VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 attack and defence ratings

VVV Venlo

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Jong PSV U21

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 VVV Venlo 61.1% 1.64 +1.8% 1.62
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.0% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.6% 1.60 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.2% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 VVV Venlo win 45.7% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2VVV Venlo61.1%
Draw20.1%
Jong PSV U2118.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%
Both teams to scoreYes62.6%
No37.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.2%
12 (either side)79.9%
X2 (draw or away)38.9%
Handicap -1VVV Venlo win45.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss33.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.4%
2-08.4%
1-18.3%
Compare prices for this pick

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 stats

VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 recent form

newest first
VVV Venlo WLWDWW
Jong PSV U21 LWLDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 season so far

league record

VVV Venlo record

  • They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jong PSV U21 record

  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3VVV Venlo wins 2Draws 5Jong PSV U21 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-06Jong PSV U21VVV VenloEerste Divisie1-0
2025-08-15VVV VenloJong PSV U21Eerste Divisie0-2
2025-01-27Jong PSV U21VVV VenloEerste Divisie1-2
2024-09-20VVV VenloJong PSV U21Eerste Divisie0-2
2024-02-02VVV VenloJong PSV U21Eerste Divisie3-2
2023-09-22Jong PSV U21VVV VenloEerste Divisie0-0
2023-01-23Jong PSV U21VVV VenloEerste Divisie1-2
2022-09-16VVV VenloJong PSV U21Eerste Divisie1-1
2022-01-14VVV VenloJong PSV U21Eerste Divisie1-4
2021-10-01Jong PSV U21VVV VenloEerste Divisie2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.3%, draw 20.5%, away 20.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.56 4.55 4.57
Bet365 1.57 4.75 4.75
BetVictor 1.53 4.50 4.75
Betano 1.57 4.55 4.60
Betfair 1.57 4.50 4.50
Dafabet 1.62 4.70 4.60
Marathonbet 1.54 4.55 4.60
Pinnacle 1.59 4.69 4.82
SBO 1.51 4.12 4.18
William Hill 1.57 4.20 4.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.57 ▼ -0.18
X 4.55 ▲ +0.25
2 4.60 ▲ +0.77

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 VVV Venlo Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now