MVV
vs
VVV Venlo
Garuda Lions Prediction: VVV Venlo
1 – 3 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.05 vs 1.43.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
MVV vs VVV Venlo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MVV vs VVV Venlo
| Probability | MVV | Draw | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.5% | 15.9% | 69.5% |
| Market | 29.8% | 24.8% | 45.4% |
| Final | 26.0% | 22.6% | 51.4% |
| Edge | -3.8% | -2.2% | +6.0% |
Why VVV Venlo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.05 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices VVV Venlo below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.4% per unit staked (our 51.4% × 2.07 − 1).
MVV vs VVV Venlo match preview
In the upcoming Eerste Divisie match, MVV faces VVV Venlo, with probabilities indicating a 26% chance for MVV to win, a 23% chance for a draw, and a 51% likelihood for VVV Venlo to secure victory. The expected goals for MVV stand at 1.43, while VVV Venlo has a significantly higher expectation of 3.05. Recent form shows MVV struggling with one win in their last six matches, while VVV Venlo has performed better, recording four wins in their last six outings.
Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 1-3 in favor of VVV Venlo, with an 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record is balanced with each team having one win in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
MVV and VVV Venlo expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.47
MVV and VVV Venlo attack and defence ratings
MVV
VVV Venlo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
MVV vs VVV Venlo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 51.4% | 1.94 | +6.0% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MVV | 26.0% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| VVV Venlo | 51.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% |
| No | 27.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win | 51.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 30.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | |
| 1-4 | 5.8% |
MVV vs VVV Venlo stats
MVV and VVV Venlo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
MVV and VVV Venlo season so far
MVV record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VVV Venlo record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MVV vs VVV Venlo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | MVV | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | VVV Venlo | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
MVV vs VVV Venlo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.8%, draw 24.8%, away 45.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.80 | 2.02 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.07 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |