Almere City FC
vs
Helmond Sport
6 – 1 Full time
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport
| Probability | Almere City FC | Draw | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.0% | 14.6% | 11.4% |
| Market | 71.1% | 16.8% | 12.1% |
| Final | 71.8% | 16.3% | 11.9% |
| Edge | +0.7% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
Why Almere City FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.14 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almere City FC and Helmond Sport expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.39
Almere City FC and Helmond Sport attack and defence ratings
Almere City FC
Helmond Sport
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport: result vs prediction
Almere City FC 6 – 1 Helmond Sport
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 71.8% | 1.39 | +0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 71.8% |
| Draw | 16.3% | |
| Helmond Sport | 11.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% |
| No | 31.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win | 56.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 25.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | |
| 3-0 | 6.4% |
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport stats
Almere City FC and Helmond Sport recent form
| Almere City FC |
WWWLLW |
| Helmond Sport |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almere City FC and Helmond Sport going into this match
Almere City FC record
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Helmond Sport record
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Almere City FC | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Helmond Sport | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-17 | Almere City FC | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-02 | Helmond Sport | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
| 2022-03-11 | Almere City FC | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
| 2021-11-01 | Helmond Sport | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2021-02-16 | Helmond Sport | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2020-09-25 | Almere City FC | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2020-02-28 | Almere City FC | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2019-08-23 | Helmond Sport | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 71.1%, draw 16.8%, away 12.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 5.60 | 7.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.34 | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 5.60 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 6.05 | 8.35 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 5.22 | 6.66 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .