Helmond Sport
vs
Dordrecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Helmond Sport
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.82.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht
| Probability | Helmond Sport | Draw | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.9% | 18.8% | 24.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.9% | 18.8% | 24.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Helmond Sport
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.82.
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht match preview
Helmond Sport will face Dordrecht in the Eerste Divisie on November 20, 2026. According to our model, Helmond Sport has a 57% probability of winning, while Dordrecht stands at 24%, with a 19% chance of a draw. The expected goals indicate a strong offensive performance from Helmond Sport at 2.74 compared to Dordrecht's 1.82. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a 7% probability.
In terms of recent form, Helmond Sport has struggled, with five losses and one win in their last six matches. Dordrecht's form is slightly better, with one win, two draws, and three losses in the same timeframe. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 79%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.56
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht attack and defence ratings
Helmond Sport
Dordrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 56.9% |
| Draw | 18.8% | |
| Dordrecht | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.9% |
| No | 21.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Helmond Sport win | 38.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.2% |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht stats
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht recent form
| Helmond Sport |
LWLLLL |
| Dordrecht |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht season so far
Helmond Sport record
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Dordrecht record
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Dordrecht | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Helmond Sport | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.