Jong AZ
vs
Den Bosch
0 – 1 Full time
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch
| Probability | Jong AZ | Draw | Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| Market | 49.4% | 21.6% | 29.1% |
| Final | 53.4% | 20.7% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +16.3% | -3.6% | -12.7% |
Why Jong AZ
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Jong AZ below the model: +16.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong AZ and Den Bosch expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.09
Jong AZ and Den Bosch attack and defence ratings
Jong AZ
Den Bosch
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch: result vs prediction
Jong AZ 0 – 1 Den Bosch
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 53.4% | 1.87 | +16.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Jong AZ win | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 53.4% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Den Bosch | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% |
| No | 29.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong AZ win | 46.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 34.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 3-1 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 6.8% |
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch stats
Jong AZ and Den Bosch recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong AZ and Den Bosch going into this match
Jong AZ record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
Den Bosch record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Jong AZ | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Den Bosch | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2025-04-28 | Jong AZ | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-16 | Den Bosch | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 6-0 |
| 2024-02-16 | Den Bosch | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-11 | Jong AZ | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-17 | Jong AZ | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-14 | Den Bosch | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
| 2021-12-20 | Jong AZ | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 3-3 |
| 2021-09-17 | Den Bosch | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 21.6%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 4.33 | 3.19 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 4.33 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 4.25 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 4.33 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.85 | 4.33 | 3.18 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 3.83 | 2.93 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .