Garuda Lions
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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 10

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo

0 – 3 Full time

Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam

Jong Ajax 29%
Draw 22%
VVV Venlo 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJong AjaxDrawVVV Venlo
Model16.3%18.6%65.2%
Market33.3%23.3%43.4%
Final29.1%22.1%48.8%
Edge-17.1%-4.7%+21.8%

Confidence: Low

Why VVV Venlo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices VVV Venlo below the model: +21.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Jong Ajax ↓ / VVV Venlo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 6% 7% 1 7% 9% 8% 10% 2 6% 5% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo expected goals

Jong Ajax 1.29
VVV Venlo 2.62

Total expected goals: 3.91

Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo attack and defence ratings

Jong Ajax

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.34 +34%

VVV Venlo

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo: result vs prediction

Jong Ajax 0 – 3 VVV Venlo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 VVV Venlo 48.8% 2.05 +21.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.8% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.8% 1.47 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.9% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 VVV Venlo win 45.0% 2.22 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Jong Ajax29.1%
Draw22.1%
VVV Venlo48.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.8%
Under 2.525.2%
Both teams to scoreYes67.8%
No32.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.2%
12 (either side)77.9%
X2 (draw or away)70.9%
Handicap -1VVV Venlo win45.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss34.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.9%
1-37.7%
1-17.5%

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo stats

Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo recent form

newest first
Jong Ajax DLLWDW
VVV Venlo WLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Jong Ajax record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

VVV Venlo record

  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Jong Ajax wins 1Draws 4VVV Venlo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-17VVV VenloJong AjaxEerste Divisie0-1
2025-09-26Jong AjaxVVV VenloEerste Divisie2-4
2025-03-07VVV VenloJong AjaxEerste Divisie1-0
2024-11-01Jong AjaxVVV VenloEerste Divisie0-1
2024-05-03VVV VenloJong AjaxEerste Divisie2-0
2023-10-06Jong AjaxVVV VenloEerste Divisie3-0
2023-04-28VVV VenloJong AjaxEerste Divisie0-1
2022-10-24Jong AjaxVVV VenloEerste Divisie1-1
2022-04-25Jong AjaxVVV VenloEerste Divisie6-1
2021-11-05VVV VenloJong AjaxEerste Divisie1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.3%, draw 23.3%, away 43.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.81 3.94 2.13
Bet365 2.88 4.00 2.15
BetVictor 2.70 4.00 2.15
Betano 2.75 4.00 2.20
Betfair 2.80 4.10 2.05
Dafabet 2.80 4.10 2.22
Marathonbet 2.79 3.94 2.11
Pinnacle 2.83 4.21 2.18
SBO 2.65 3.76 2.06
William Hill 2.70 3.80 2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.79 —
X 4.00 ▲ +0.06
2 2.15 —

10 snapshots recorded, from .