Vitesse
vs
De Graafschap
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitesse
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vitesse is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vitesse vs De Graafschap overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitesse vs De Graafschap
| Probability | Vitesse | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.1% | 28.7% | 24.2% |
| Market | 48.7% | 24.2% | 27.1% |
| Final | 48.3% | 25.3% | 26.4% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +1.1% | -0.7% |
Why Vitesse
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.99.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 48.3% × 1.96 − 1).
Vitesse vs De Graafschap match preview
Vitesse faces De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie with a probability model indicating a 47% chance of a Vitesse victory, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 24% chance for De Graafschap. The expected goals for Vitesse stand at 1.47, while De Graafschap is projected to score 0.99. The most likely scoreline is a 1-0 win for Vitesse, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Vitesse has recorded a W-L-W-L-D-L streak, while De Graafschap's recent matches show a W-L-D-L-W-D pattern. The head-to-head results from the last two encounters indicate one win for each team. The model suggests a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitesse and De Graafschap expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Vitesse and De Graafschap attack and defence ratings
Vitesse
De Graafschap
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitesse vs De Graafschap markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 48.3% | 2.07 | -0.4% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 48.3% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| De Graafschap | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
Vitesse vs De Graafschap stats
Vitesse and De Graafschap recent form
| Vitesse |
DWLWLD |
| De Graafschap |
WLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitesse and De Graafschap season so far
Vitesse record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
De Graafschap record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitesse vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | De Graafschap | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Vitesse | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitesse vs De Graafschap odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.7%, draw 24.2%, away 27.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.78 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 4.00 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.78 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.84 | 3.64 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 3.44 | 2.96 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .