Twente
vs
FC Thun
Garuda Lions Prediction: Twente
3 β 1 Predicted score Β· 7% model probability
Twente vs FC Thun overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Twente vs FC Thun
| Probability | Twente | Draw | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.6% | 11.0% | 8.4% |
| Market | 77.6% | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Final | 78.4% | 13.1% | 8.5% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -2.8% | -0.2% |
Why Twente
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.79 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Twente below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Twente vs FC Thun match preview
Twente faces FC Thun in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a strong probability of victory at 81%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Twente, projected at 3.79 compared to FC Thun's 1.33. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, occurring with a 7% probability, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match, as evidenced by an 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Twente has been impressive, recording four wins and a draw in their last six matches, while FC Thun's form has been inconsistent, with three losses in their last five games. This disparity in recent performances may play a crucial role in the outcome of the match, despite the confidence grade being marked as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Twente and FC Thun expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.12
Twente and FC Thun attack and defence ratings
Twente
FC Thun
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Twente vs FC Thun markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 78.4% | 1.28 | +3.0% | 1.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% | 1.38 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% | 1.09 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win | 65.5% | 1.53 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 78.4% |
| Draw | 13.1% | |
| FC Thun | 8.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 11.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% |
| No | 27.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win | 65.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.1% | |
| Loss | 19.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.2% |
| 4-1 | 6.8% | |
| 2-1 | 5.7% |
Twente vs FC Thun stats
Twente vs FC Thun head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Twente vs FC Thun odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.6%, draw 13.8%, away 8.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 7.65 | 12.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.50 | 11.50 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 6.70 | 10.75 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.22 | 7.20 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 6.85 | 11.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 6.79 | 10.76 |
| SBO | 1.18 | 5.80 | 8.49 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.50 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .