Garuda Lions
Today
UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Twente vs FC Thun

1 – 0 Full time

31′Fabio Fehr
43′Aske Adelgaard
46′J. BamertN. Zoukit
60′Patrik Kristal
65′R. Zerrouki
66′N. ReichmuthL. Passavant
66′F. DursunN. Maier
67′Y. TahaK. Hlynsson
67′D. RotsM. Pjaca
78′S. OrjasaeterF. Thorvaldsen
81′O. MambwaT. Strannegard
81′B. LabeauR. Braschi
84′D. WeidmannT. van den Belt

De Grolsch Veste, EnschedeReferee: G. Nuza

Twente 79%
Draw 12%
FC Thun 8%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 0
73 Possession % 27
6 Corners 1
6 Fouls 19
0 Saves 4
584 Accurate passes 173

Twente vs FC Thun overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Twente vs FC Thun

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTwenteDrawFC Thun
Model80.7%11.0%8.3%
Market78.9%12.6%8.5%
Final79.3%12.2%8.5%
Edge+0.5%-0.4%-0.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Twente

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.79 vs 1.33.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Twente ↓ / FC Thun → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 4+ 14% 18% 12%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 97%
3+ goals 88%
No goals 1%

Twente and FC Thun expected goals

Twente 3.79
FC Thun 1.33

Total expected goals: 5.11

Twente and FC Thun attack and defence ratings

Twente

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.91 -9%

FC Thun

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.64 +64%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Twente vs FC Thun: result vs prediction

Twente 1 – 0 FC Thun

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

Twente vs FC Thun markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Twente 79.3% 1.26 +0.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 88.5% 1.13 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.1% 1.39 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 91.5% 1.09 — —
Handicap -1 Twente win 65.6% 1.53 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Twente79.3%
Draw12.2%
FC Thun8.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.588.5%
Under 2.511.5%
Both teams to scoreYes72.1%
No27.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)91.5%
12 (either side)87.8%
X2 (draw or away)20.7%
Handicap -1Twente win65.6%
Push (exactly one goal)15.1%
Loss19.3%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.2%
4-16.9%
2-15.7%

Twente vs FC Thun stats

Twente and FC Thun recent form

newest first
Twente DWWWDW
FC Thun LWLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Twente vs FC Thun head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Twente vs FC Thun odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 78.9%, draw 12.6%, away 8.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.20 8.20 12.70
Bet365 1.20 7.50 9.50
BetVictor 1.17 7.50 12.00
Betano 1.23 7.70 12.00
Betfair 1.18 6.50 11.00
Dafabet 1.21 7.80 11.00
Marathonbet 1.18 7.30 11.25
Pinnacle 1.21 7.69 11.90
SBO 1.19 6.57 9.26
William Hill 1.20 7.00 11.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.20 —
X 7.50 ▲ +0.75
2 11.12 ▲ +0.25

14 snapshots recorded, from .