FC Zurich
vs
FC Thun
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Thun
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
FC Zurich vs FC Thun overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Zurich vs FC Thun
| Probability | FC Zurich | Draw | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 21.9% | 35.0% |
| Market | 34.5% | 24.0% | 41.5% |
| Final | 36.7% | 23.5% | 39.9% |
| Edge | +8.6% | -2.1% | -6.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Zurich vs FC Thun match preview
FC Zurich faces FC Thun in the Switzerland Super League on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, with FC Zurich holding a 37% probability of victory, while FC Thun slightly edges ahead at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of FC Thun, with a 7% chance. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, as the probabilities suggest a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams scoring at 76%.
Recent form shows FC Zurich with mixed results, recording a draw, two wins, and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, FC Thun has a more favorable recent record, with three wins, two losses, and a draw in their last six games. The expected goals for FC Zurich stand at 2.14, while FC Thun is at 1.92, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Zurich and FC Thun expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.06
FC Zurich and FC Thun attack and defence ratings
FC Zurich
FC Thun
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Zurich vs FC Thun markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 39.9% | 2.51 | -6.5% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Zurich | 36.7% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| FC Thun | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.0% |
| No | 24.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Thun win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 65.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.8% |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
FC Zurich vs FC Thun stats
FC Zurich and FC Thun recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Zurich and FC Thun season so far
FC Zurich record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
FC Thun record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
FC Zurich vs FC Thun head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | FC Zurich | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | FC Thun | FC Zurich | Switzerland Super League | 4-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | FC Zurich | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 0-4 |
| 2024-07-06 | FC Thun | FC Zurich | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2020-08-03 | FC Zurich | FC Thun | Super League | 3-3 |
| 2020-07-01 | FC Thun | FC Zurich | Super League | 3-2 |
| 2019-11-02 | FC Thun | FC Zurich | Super League | 0-1 |
| 2019-09-22 | FC Zurich | FC Thun | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2019-05-15 | FC Zurich | FC Thun | Super League | 3-0 |
| 2019-03-10 | FC Thun | FC Zurich | Super League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Zurich vs FC Thun odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 24.0%, away 41.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.70 | 3.95 | 2.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.90 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 4.00 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 4.00 | 2.31 |
| Marathonbet | 2.69 | 3.95 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.87 | 2.29 |
| SBO | 2.46 | 3.52 | 2.17 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .