Switzerland Super League · 2026-09-20T12:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 9

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun

1 – 2 Full time

31′			Nassim Zoukit
33′			Furkan Dursun
39′			Jan Bamert
49′			Nils·Reichmuth
67′			Mattias Käit
67′			Mattias KäitNoah Christoffersson
67′			Tom StrannegardOlivier Mambwa
67′			Furkan DursunNico Maier
73′			Marcel Monsberger
74′			Juan CabreraDejan Djokic
74′			Niklas Langmischa beeli
77′			Milos Cocic
78′			Nils·ReichmuthFabio Fehr
80′			Dominik SchwizerMalik Sawadogo
86′			Nassim ZoukitLouis Immanuel Passavant
88′			Nico Maier
88′			Nicolas HaslerMattia walker

Rheinpark Stadion, VaduzReferee: Zrinko Prskalo

FC Vaduz

45%

Draw

22%

FC Thun

33%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

18	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	6
66	Possession %	34
3	Corners	7
13	Fouls	21
0	Offsides	1
3	Saves	2
432	Accurate passes	180

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Vaduz vs FC Thun

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FC Vaduz	Draw	FC Thun
Model	60.5%	17.5%	22.0%
Market	40.0%	23.2%	36.8%
Final	45.1%	21.8%	33.1%
Edge	+20.5%	-5.7%	-14.8%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Vaduz

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 1.85.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices FC Vaduz below the model: +20.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

99%

2+ goals

96%

3+ goals

86%

No goals

FC Vaduz and FC Thun expected goals

FC Vaduz

2.98

FC Thun

1.85

Total expected goals: 4.84

FC Vaduz and FC Thun attack and defence ratings

FC Vaduz

Attack

1.20 +20%

Defence

1.11 +11%

FC Thun

Attack

1.06 +6%

Defence

1.38 +38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun: result vs prediction

FC Vaduz 1 – 2 FC Thun

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

BSC Young Boys v Servette FC — match page · 2026-09-19
FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
FC Sion vs FC Zurich · 2026-09-19
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
Lausanne vs FC Lugano · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

FC Vaduz, previous: FC Zurich vs FC Vaduz prediction
FC Vaduz, next: FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893: odds and pick
FC Thun, previous: FC Thun v Servette FC analysis
FC Thun, next: FC Zurich vs FC Thun: odds and pick

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Vaduz	45.1%	2.22	+20.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	86.1%	1.16	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	80.5%	1.24	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	78.2%	1.28	—	—
Handicap -1	FC Vaduz win	42.3%	2.36	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FC Vaduz	45.1%
	Draw	21.8%
	FC Thun	33.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	86.1%
	Under 2.5	13.9%
Both teams to score	Yes	80.5%
	No	19.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	66.9%
	12 (either side)	78.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	54.9%
Handicap -1	FC Vaduz win	42.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.2%
	Loss	39.5%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	6.5%
	3-1	6.5%
	2-2	6.1%

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun stats

FC Vaduz and FC Thun recent form

newest first

FC Vaduz	LWLWLD
FC Thun	LLLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Vaduz and FC Thun going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Vaduz record

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.

FC Thun record

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2FC Vaduz wins 3Draws 5FC Thun wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2025-05-11	FC Vaduz	FC Thun	Challenge League	3-3
2025-01-24	FC Thun	FC Vaduz	Challenge League	3-1
2024-10-19	FC Vaduz	FC Thun	Challenge League	2-0
2024-07-28	FC Thun	FC Vaduz	Challenge League	2-0
2024-05-17	FC Thun	FC Vaduz	Challenge League	6-3
2024-04-01	FC Vaduz	FC Thun	Challenge League	1-0
2023-10-29	FC Thun	FC Vaduz	Challenge League	2-1
2023-10-01	FC Vaduz	FC Thun	Challenge League	1-1
2023-05-07	FC Thun	FC Vaduz	Challenge League	3-3
2023-02-12	FC Vaduz	FC Thun	Challenge League	0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.0%, draw 23.2%, away 36.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.32	4.05	2.52
Bet365	2.35	4.00	2.55
BetVictor	2.30	3.90	2.50
Betano	2.35	3.95	2.55
Betfair	2.30	4.00	2.50
Marathonbet	2.32	4.05	2.52
Pinnacle	2.39	4.39	2.58
SBO	2.29	3.78	2.45
William Hill	2.30	3.90	2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.32 ▼ -0.39

X 4.00 ▲ +0.05

2 2.52 ▲ +0.31

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-13T16:10:01Z.