FC Vaduz
vs
FC Basel 1893
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Vaduz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893
| Probability | FC Vaduz | Draw | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.5% | 20.3% | 32.2% |
| Market | 36.4% | 23.5% | 40.1% |
| Final | 39.2% | 22.7% | 38.1% |
| Edge | +11.1% | -3.2% | -7.9% |
Why FC Vaduz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 2.03.
- The market prices FC Vaduz below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 match preview
FC Vaduz will face FC Basel 1893 in the Switzerland Super League on October 11, 2026. The model probabilities suggest a 47% chance of a home win for FC Vaduz, while FC Basel has a 32% chance of winning, and a draw is estimated at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of FC Vaduz, occurring with a 7% probability.
Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with an 82% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance of both teams scoring. FC Vaduz has an expected goals figure of 2.44, compared to FC Basel's 2.03. Recent form shows FC Vaduz with two losses followed by a win, while FC Basel has a mixed record with two losses, a draw, and a win in their last five matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893 expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.47
FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893 attack and defence ratings
FC Vaduz
FC Basel 1893
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Vaduz | 39.2% | 2.55 | +11.1% | 2.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Vaduz | 39.2% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| FC Basel 1893 | 38.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% |
| No | 20.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Vaduz win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 52.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.0% |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.2% |
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 stats
FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893 recent form
| FC Vaduz |
LLWLWL |
| FC Basel 1893 |
LWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893 season so far
FC Vaduz record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
FC Basel 1893 record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 23.5%, away 40.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 4.05 | 2.29 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.95 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 4.00 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.56 | 4.05 | 2.29 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 4.05 | 2.36 |
| SBO | 2.40 | 3.55 | 2.21 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .