Switzerland Super League · 2026-10-10T16:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 10

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

4 – 0 Full time

4′			Behruzjon Karimov
12′			Daniel Dos Santos Correia
15′			Daniel Dos Santos Correia
35′			Renato Steffen
43′			Stefan Knezevic
45′			Lars Lukas MaiMartim Marques
45′			Bung Hua FreimannPius Dorn
57′			Albian AjetiBeckham Castro
57′			Renato SteffenDereck Moncada
61′			Rúben Dantas Fernandes
66′			Leonardo Bertone
67′			Tyron OwusuNando Toggenburger
67′			Daniel MikołajewskiLars Villiger
74′			Behruzjon KarimovDamian Kelvin
78′			Daniel Dos Santos Correia
79′			Oscar Kabwit TshikombLucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
83′			Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaAhmed Kendouci
83′			Mio ZimmermannLevin Winkler
87′			Dereck Moncada

Cornaredo, LuganoReferee: Anojen Kanagasingam

FC Lugano

61%

Draw

20%

FC Luzern

19%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

19	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	4
60	Possession %	40
8	Corners	7
11	Fouls	9
1	Offsides	1
4	Saves	4
478	Accurate passes	284

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FC Lugano	Draw	FC Luzern
Model	70.2%	16.4%	13.5%
Market	58.2%	21.1%	20.7%
Final	61.2%	19.9%	18.9%
Edge	+3.0%	-1.2%	-1.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Lugano

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.28.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

98%

2+ goals

93%

3+ goals

79%

No goals

FC Lugano and FC Luzern expected goals

FC Lugano

2.90

FC Luzern

1.28

Total expected goals: 4.18

FC Lugano and FC Luzern attack and defence ratings

FC Lugano

Attack

1.65 +65%

Defence

0.63 -37%

FC Luzern

Attack

1.27 +27%

Defence

0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern: result vs prediction

FC Lugano 4 – 0 FC Luzern

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

FC Zurich v FC Thun — match page · 2026-10-10
Servette FC vs FC Sion — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Grasshoppers v BSC Young Boys — match page · 2026-10-11
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

FC Lugano, previous: Lausanne v FC Lugano analysis
FC Lugano, next: FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda analysis
FC Luzern, previous: FC Luzern v Grasshoppers analysis
FC Luzern, next: FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern: odds and pick

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Lugano	61.2%	1.64	+3.0%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.7%	1.27	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	68.7%	1.45	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.1%	1.23	—	—
Handicap -1	FC Lugano win	51.1%	1.96	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FC Lugano	61.2%
	Draw	19.9%
	FC Luzern	18.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.7%
	Under 2.5	21.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	68.7%
	No	31.3%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.1%
	12 (either side)	80.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	38.8%
Handicap -1	FC Lugano win	51.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	19.1%
	Loss	29.8%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	8.2%
	3-1	8.0%
	2-0	6.4%

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern stats

FC Lugano and FC Luzern recent form

newest first

FC Lugano	WWDWWW
FC Luzern	WLDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Lugano and FC Luzern going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Lugano record

They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FC Luzern record

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7FC Lugano wins 0Draws 3FC Luzern wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-07	FC Lugano	FC Luzern	Switzerland Super League	1-3
2026-01-17	FC Luzern	FC Lugano	Switzerland Super League	2-5
2025-10-30	FC Lugano	FC Luzern	Switzerland Super League	2-0
2025-05-04	FC Luzern	FC Lugano	Super League	0-2
2025-02-15	FC Lugano	FC Luzern	Super League	2-0
2024-12-07	FC Luzern	FC Lugano	Super League	1-4
2024-08-11	FC Lugano	FC Luzern	Super League	2-3
2024-03-03	FC Luzern	FC Lugano	Super League	0-1
2023-12-03	FC Lugano	FC Luzern	Super League	1-0
2023-09-03	FC Luzern	FC Lugano	Super League	3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.2%, draw 21.1%, away 20.7%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.61	4.50	4.44
Bet365	1.60	4.33	4.75
BetVictor	1.55	4.33	4.50
Betano	1.62	4.35	4.45
Betfair	1.57	4.50	4.75
Dafabet	1.61	4.60	4.70
Marathonbet	1.59	4.50	4.50
Pinnacle	1.64	4.57	4.78
SBO	1.55	4.10	4.21
William Hill	1.62	4.00	4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 —

X 4.42 ▲ +0.01

2 4.50 ▲ +0.03

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-04T08:10:02Z.