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Switzerland Super League · ·Matchday 10

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Lugano

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

Bet on FC Lugano

Cornaredo, LuganoReferee: Anojen Kanagasingam

FC Lugano 61%
Draw 20%
FC Luzern 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Lugano wins
61%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
69%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC LuganoDrawFC Luzern
Model70.2%16.4%13.5%
Market58.3%21.0%20.7%
Final61.3%19.8%18.9%
Edge+11.9%-4.6%-7.2%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Lugano

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +11.9 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern match preview

FC Lugano enters the match against FC Luzern with a strong probability of winning at 61%, while Luzern has a 19% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Lugano, with an 8% likelihood. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at a rate of 79%, and both teams scoring is anticipated at 69%.

In terms of recent form, FC Lugano has been performing well, with five consecutive wins followed by a draw, while FC Luzern has a mixed record, winning three of their last six matches. In their last three encounters, Lugano has secured two victories against Luzern, who has one win. The expected goals for Lugano stand at 2.90, compared to Luzern's 1.28, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Lugano ↓ / FC Luzern → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 2 6% 8% 3 6% 8% 4+ 9% 12% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

FC Lugano and FC Luzern expected goals

FC Lugano 2.90
FC Luzern 1.28

Total expected goals: 4.18

FC Lugano and FC Luzern attack and defence ratings

FC Lugano

Attack 1.65 +65%
Defence 0.63 -37%

FC Luzern

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

Before and after this match

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Lugano 61.3% 1.63 +11.9% 1.62
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.7% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.7% 1.45 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.1% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 FC Lugano win 51.1% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Lugano61.3%
Draw19.8%
FC Luzern18.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.7%
Under 2.521.3%
Both teams to scoreYes68.7%
No31.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.1%
12 (either side)80.2%
X2 (draw or away)38.7%
Handicap -1FC Lugano win51.1%
Push (exactly one goal)19.1%
Loss29.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.2%
3-18.0%
2-06.4%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern stats

FC Lugano and FC Luzern recent form

newest first
FC Lugano WWDWWW
FC Luzern WLDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Lugano and FC Luzern season so far

league record

FC Lugano record

  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FC Luzern record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7FC Lugano wins 0Draws 3FC Luzern wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-07FC LuganoFC LuzernSwitzerland Super League1-3
2026-01-17FC LuzernFC LuganoSwitzerland Super League2-5
2025-10-30FC LuganoFC LuzernSwitzerland Super League2-0
2025-05-04FC LuzernFC LuganoSuper League0-2
2025-02-15FC LuganoFC LuzernSuper League2-0
2024-12-07FC LuzernFC LuganoSuper League1-4
2024-08-11FC LuganoFC LuzernSuper League2-3
2024-03-03FC LuzernFC LuganoSuper League0-1
2023-12-03FC LuganoFC LuzernSuper League1-0
2023-09-03FC LuzernFC LuganoSuper League3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.3%, draw 21.0%, away 20.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.61 4.50 4.44
Bet365 1.60 4.33 4.75
BetVictor 1.55 4.40 4.50
Betano 1.62 4.35 4.45
Betfair 1.57 4.60 4.75
Dafabet 1.61 4.60 4.70
Marathonbet 1.59 4.50 4.50
Pinnacle 1.60 4.54 4.80
SBO 1.53 4.00 4.10
William Hill 1.60 4.00 4.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 —
X 4.45 ▲ +0.04
2 4.50 ▲ +0.03

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 FC Lugano Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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