Garuda Lions
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Schweizer Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich

2 – 0 Full time

5′B. Senyurt
58′V. BerishaL. Comenencia
60′I. Aliu
64′M. Reichmuth
65′B. SenyurtL. Obexer
65′D. Afriyie
74′K. SpadanudaD. Ramic
75′H. KoideA. Beka Beka
80′D. Afriyie
83′M. Reichmuth
83′M. Reichmuth
87′M. DickenmannS. Muller
87′I. AliuK. Ndau
87′M. GuindoA. Bizzarri
FC Aarau 21%
Draw 21%
FC Zurich 58%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Aarau vs FC Zurich

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC AarauDrawFC Zurich
Model6.1%13.7%80.2%
Market25.4%23.5%51.1%
Final20.6%21.0%58.4%
Edge-4.8%-2.4%+7.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Zurich

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.68.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Zurich below our published probability: +7.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Aarau ↓ / FC Zurich → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 12% 11% 16% 1 8% 11% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

FC Aarau and FC Zurich expected goals

FC Aarau 0.68
FC Zurich 2.81

Total expected goals: 3.49

FC Aarau and FC Zurich attack and defence ratings

FC Aarau

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.94 -6%

FC Zurich

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich: result vs prediction

FC Aarau 2 – 0 FC Zurich

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Schweizer Cup

Before and after this match

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Zurich 58.4% 1.71 +7.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score No 52.2% 1.92 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.4% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 FC Zurich win 61.5% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Aarau20.6%
Draw21.0%
FC Zurich58.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%
Both teams to scoreYes47.8%
No52.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.6%
12 (either side)79.0%
X2 (draw or away)79.4%
Handicap -1FC Zurich win61.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss19.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.9%
0-311.1%
1-28.3%

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich stats

FC Aarau and FC Zurich recent form

newest first
FC Aarau LLDWDW
FC Zurich WDWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

2FC Aarau wins 1Draws 3FC Zurich wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2021-07-03FC ZurichFC AarauFriendlies Clubs0-1
2020-06-09FC ZurichFC AarauFriendlies Clubs5-1
2017-05-04FC AarauFC ZurichChallenge League3-1
2017-04-17FC ZurichFC AarauChallenge League3-2
2016-11-06FC ZurichFC AarauChallenge League6-3
2016-09-25FC AarauFC ZurichChallenge League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.4%, draw 23.5%, away 51.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.70 4.05 1.78
Bet365 3.80 3.75 1.83
BetVictor 3.20 3.30 1.70
Marathonbet 3.70 4.05 1.76
Pinnacle 3.24 4.19 1.83
William Hill 3.50 3.70 1.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.60 ▼ -0.03
X 3.90 ▼ -0.20
2 1.79 ▲ +0.06

2 snapshots recorded, from .