FC Aarau
vs
FC Zurich
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Zurich
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
FC Aarau vs FC Zurich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Aarau vs FC Zurich
| Probability | FC Aarau | Draw | FC Zurich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.0% | 18.8% | 71.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 10.0% | 18.8% | 71.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Zurich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.71.
FC Aarau vs FC Zurich match preview
FC Aarau faces FC Zurich in the Schweizer Cup, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. The model probabilities indicate a strong advantage for FC Zurich, who have a 71% chance of winning compared to FC Aarau's 10%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring with a 12% probability. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 60%, while both teams to score stands at 49%.
In terms of recent form, FC Aarau has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while FC Zurich has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. Expected goals suggest FC Aarau will generate 0.77, while FC Zurich is projected to score 2.31. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the model-only probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Aarau and FC Zurich expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
FC Aarau and FC Zurich attack and defence ratings
FC Aarau
FC Zurich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Aarau vs FC Zurich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Zurich | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.0% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Zurich win | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 10.0% |
| Draw | 18.8% | |
| FC Zurich | 71.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 28.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Zurich win | 51.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 26.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.4% |