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Challenge League · Full time ·Matchday 10

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau

2 – 1 Full time

Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon

Stade Nyonnais 17%
Draw 20%
FC Aarau 63%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStade NyonnaisDrawFC Aarau
Model17.3%19.7%63.0%
Market17.0%19.9%63.1%
Final17.1%19.9%63.0%
Edge+0.3%-0.2%-0.1%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Aarau

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.26.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stade Nyonnais ↓ / FC Aarau → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 7% 6% 7% 1 8% 9% 8% 8% 2 5% 6% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau expected goals

Stade Nyonnais 1.26
FC Aarau 2.47

Total expected goals: 3.73

Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau attack and defence ratings

Stade Nyonnais

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.58 +58%

FC Aarau

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau: result vs prediction

Stade Nyonnais 2 – 1 FC Aarau

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Challenge League

Before and after this match

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Aarau 63.0% 1.59 -0.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.9% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.3% 1.51 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 82.9% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 FC Aarau win 42.4% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stade Nyonnais17.1%
Draw19.9%
FC Aarau63.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%
Both teams to scoreYes66.3%
No33.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)37.0%
12 (either side)80.1%
X2 (draw or away)82.9%
Handicap -1FC Aarau win42.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss36.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.2%
1-18.2%
1-37.6%

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau stats

Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau recent form

newest first
Stade Nyonnais LLLDLD
FC Aarau LDWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau going into this match

league record before kick-off

Stade Nyonnais record

  • They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

FC Aarau record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Stade Nyonnais wins 2Draws 6FC Aarau wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-07FC AarauStade NyonnaisChallenge League2-1
2026-05-08FC AarauStade NyonnaisChallenge League5-1
2026-02-20Stade NyonnaisFC AarauChallenge League1-1
2025-11-22FC AarauStade NyonnaisChallenge League0-1
2025-08-22Stade NyonnaisFC AarauChallenge League4-5
2025-05-23FC AarauStade NyonnaisChallenge League1-1
2025-01-24Stade NyonnaisFC AarauChallenge League1-2
2024-10-25FC AarauStade NyonnaisChallenge League1-0
2024-09-27Stade NyonnaisFC AarauChallenge League1-2
2024-05-20Stade NyonnaisFC AarauChallenge League4-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 17.0%, draw 19.9%, away 63.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.51 4.55 1.42
Bet365 5.25 4.75 1.45
BetVictor 5.50 4.75 1.45
Betano 5.10 4.45 1.52
Betfair 5.50 4.60 1.40
Dafabet 5.40 4.70 1.50
Marathonbet 5.30 4.55 1.41
Pinnacle 5.68 5.01 1.47
SBO 4.84 4.24 1.42
William Hill 5.00 4.40 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.35 ▼ -0.28
X 4.57 ▼ -0.13
2 1.44 ▲ +0.03

14 snapshots recorded, from .