Neuchatel Xamax FC
vs
FC Winterthur
3 – 0 Full time
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur
| Probability | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Draw | FC Winterthur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.9% | 23.2% | 56.0% |
| Market | 30.1% | 24.5% | 45.4% |
| Final | 27.8% | 24.2% | 48.0% |
| Edge | -9.2% | -1.4% | +10.6% |
Why FC Winterthur
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Winterthur below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur attack and defence ratings
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Winterthur
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur: result vs prediction
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3 – 0 FC Winterthur
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Winterthur | 48.0% | 2.08 | +10.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 27.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| FC Winterthur | 48.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win | 34.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 44.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.2% |
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur stats
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur recent form
| Neuchatel Xamax FC |
LWLLLL |
| FC Winterthur |
WWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur going into this match
Neuchatel Xamax FC record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Winterthur record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | FC Winterthur | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 4-0 |
| 2026-03-27 | FC Winterthur | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2022-05-14 | FC Winterthur | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 3-1 |
| 2022-03-18 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-29 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 1-1 |
| 2021-09-11 | FC Winterthur | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-30 | FC Winterthur | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 0-1 |
| 2021-02-20 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 3-1 |
| 2020-12-22 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 2-0 |
| 2020-12-11 | FC Winterthur | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 24.5%, away 45.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.70 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.70 | 2.12 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.17 | 4.01 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 2.84 | 3.36 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .