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Challenge League · Full time ·Matchday 9

FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau

2 – 1 Full time

7′Z. TairiV. Petit-Viretti
15′A. Marchesano
20′D. Acquah
33′S. Camara
38′T. Citherlet
40′S. Muller
56′D. Acquah
56′D. Acquah
64′A. JankewitzY. Odin
64′F. RohnerS. Ottiger
65′S. Ottiger
68′M. GuindoS. Vladi
73′B. BeyerA. Turkes
73′R. ArnoldS. Diaby
76′T. Golliard
84′V. Petit-VirettiA. Beka Beka
84′K. NdauD. Coric
84′L. ObexerB. Senyurt
85′A. MarchesanoR. Buess
90′D. Coric

Referee: H. Qovanaj

FC Winterthur 47%
Draw 24%
FC Aarau 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC WinterthurDrawFC Aarau
Model56.3%21.4%22.3%
Market44.2%25.2%30.6%
Final47.2%24.2%28.5%
Edge+12.1%-3.7%-8.3%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Winterthur

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Winterthur below the model: +12.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Winterthur ↓ / FC Aarau → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

FC Winterthur and FC Aarau expected goals

FC Winterthur 2.28
FC Aarau 1.39

Total expected goals: 3.68

FC Winterthur and FC Aarau attack and defence ratings

FC Winterthur

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.84 -16%

FC Aarau

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau: result vs prediction

FC Winterthur 2 – 1 FC Aarau

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Challenge League

Before and after this match

FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Winterthur 47.2% 2.12 +12.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.2% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.6% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.3% 2.31 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Winterthur47.2%
Draw24.2%
FC Aarau28.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%
Both teams to scoreYes68.6%
No31.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.5%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)52.8%
Handicap -1FC Winterthur win36.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss43.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.2%
1-18.8%
3-17.0%

FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau stats

FC Winterthur and FC Aarau recent form

newest first
FC Winterthur WWDDWW
FC Aarau DWDWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Winterthur and FC Aarau going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Winterthur record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Aarau record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Winterthur wins 3Draws 3FC Aarau wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-09-17FC AarauFC WinterthurSchweizer Cup1-2
2023-07-08FC WinterthurFC AarauFriendlies Clubs2-0
2022-04-08FC AarauFC WinterthurChallenge League0-3
2022-03-11FC WinterthurFC AarauChallenge League4-2
2021-12-03FC AarauFC WinterthurChallenge League2-0
2021-09-24FC WinterthurFC AarauChallenge League0-0
2021-04-23FC WinterthurFC AarauChallenge League3-3
2021-04-06FC AarauFC WinterthurSchweizer Cup3-0
2021-02-26FC AarauFC WinterthurChallenge League0-0
2020-11-27FC AarauFC WinterthurChallenge League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 25.2%, away 30.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.01 3.60 3.02
Bet365 2.00 3.90 3.00
BetVictor 2.05 3.70 3.10
Betano 2.20 3.60 2.87
Betfair 2.00 3.80 2.88
Marathonbet 1.99 3.60 2.96
Pinnacle 2.10 3.93 3.12
SBO 2.09 3.22 2.76
William Hill 2.05 3.50 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.05 ▼ -0.19
X 3.60 —
2 2.96 ▲ +0.26

12 snapshots recorded, from .