FC Aarau
vs
Étoile Carouge
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Aarau
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.86.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
| Probability | FC Aarau | Draw | Étoile Carouge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.8% | 22.8% | 14.4% |
| Market | 53.7% | 23.4% | 22.8% |
| Final | 56.0% | 23.3% | 20.7% |
| Edge | +2.3% | -0.2% | -2.1% |
Why FC Aarau
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Aarau below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.0% per unit staked (our 56.0% × 1.75 − 1).
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge match preview
FC Aarau enters this match with a 60% probability of winning against Étoile Carouge, who has a 17% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of FC Aarau, with an expected goals figure of 1.95 compared to Étoile Carouge's 0.94. Recent form shows FC Aarau with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Étoile Carouge has struggled significantly, recording four losses and one draw.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 53% chance of scoring at least once. Historically, in their last five encounters, FC Aarau has won three times, while Étoile Carouge has claimed victory twice. The confidence grade for this matchup stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge attack and defence ratings
FC Aarau
Étoile Carouge
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 56.0% | 1.79 | +2.3% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win | 39.1% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 56.0% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Étoile Carouge | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win | 39.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 37.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.5% |
| 1-1 | 10.9% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge stats
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge recent form
| FC Aarau |
WLLDWD |
| Étoile Carouge |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge season so far
FC Aarau record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Étoile Carouge record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Étoile Carouge | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-07 | FC Aarau | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-06 | Étoile Carouge | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 0-3 |
| 2025-12-12 | FC Aarau | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Étoile Carouge | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-16 | Étoile Carouge | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-28 | FC Aarau | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-05 | FC Aarau | Étoile Carouge | Schweizer Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-01 | Étoile Carouge | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-24 | FC Aarau | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.7%, draw 23.4%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.85 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.85 | 3.86 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 3.99 | 4.12 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.61 | 3.69 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .