Étoile Carouge
vs
SC Kriens
Garuda Lions Prediction: Étoile Carouge
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Étoile Carouge is the favourite, not a value bet.
Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens
| Probability | Étoile Carouge | Draw | SC Kriens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 26.8% | 44.4% |
| Market | 43.6% | 25.4% | 31.0% |
| Final | 39.9% | 25.7% | 34.4% |
| Edge | -3.7% | +0.4% | +3.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.15 − 1).
Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens match preview
Étoile Carouge faces SC Kriens in the Challenge League with a probability of 40% for a home win, while SC Kriens has a 34% chance of victory and a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Étoile Carouge, occurring at a rate of 7%. The expected goals for Étoile Carouge is 1.26, compared to SC Kriens' 1.61.
In terms of recent form, Étoile Carouge has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches (W-L-L-L-L-D), whereas SC Kriens has shown slightly better performance with two draws and one win in their last six games (L-D-W-D-L-D). The head-to-head record favors SC Kriens, who have won three of the last five encounters, while Étoile Carouge has secured two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Étoile Carouge and SC Kriens expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Étoile Carouge and SC Kriens attack and defence ratings
Étoile Carouge
SC Kriens
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Étoile Carouge | 39.9% | 2.51 | -3.7% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Étoile Carouge | 39.9% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| SC Kriens | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% |
| No | 41.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Étoile Carouge win | 12.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 71.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens stats
Étoile Carouge and SC Kriens recent form
| Étoile Carouge |
WLLLLD |
| SC Kriens |
LDWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Étoile Carouge and SC Kriens season so far
Étoile Carouge record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
SC Kriens record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | SC Kriens | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League | 4-1 |
| 2024-03-09 | SC Kriens | Étoile Carouge | 1. Liga Promotion | 1-3 |
| 2023-09-03 | Étoile Carouge | SC Kriens | 1. Liga Promotion | 4-0 |
| 2023-04-15 | SC Kriens | Étoile Carouge | 1. Liga Promotion | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-08 | Étoile Carouge | SC Kriens | 1. Liga Promotion | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 25.4%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.66 | 2.94 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.66 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.69 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.90 |