FC Winterthur
vs
Étoile Carouge
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Winterthur
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.72.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge
| Probability | FC Winterthur | Draw | Étoile Carouge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.3% | 19.7% | 10.0% |
| Market | 61.1% | 21.2% | 17.7% |
| Final | 63.4% | 20.9% | 15.8% |
| Edge | +2.3% | -0.4% | -1.9% |
Why FC Winterthur
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Winterthur below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 63.4% × 1.53 − 1).
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge match preview
FC Winterthur enters this match against Étoile Carouge with a strong probability of winning at 66%. Their recent form shows a series of positive results, with three wins in their last five matches. In contrast, Étoile Carouge has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings, which includes four losses. The expected goals for FC Winterthur stand at 2.08, while Étoile Carouge is projected at 0.81, indicating a significant disparity in offensive capabilities.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of FC Winterthur, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 50% likelihood of scoring. The head-to-head record shows that both teams have one win each in their last two encounters, adding a layer of competitiveness to this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge attack and defence ratings
FC Winterthur
Étoile Carouge
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Winterthur | 63.4% | 1.58 | +2.3% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Winterthur | 63.4% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Étoile Carouge | 15.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win | 47.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 29.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 3-0 | 9.5% |
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge stats
FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge recent form
| FC Winterthur |
WWLLWW |
| Étoile Carouge |
DWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge season so far
FC Winterthur record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Étoile Carouge record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Étoile Carouge | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 0-1 |
| 2021-09-18 | Étoile Carouge | FC Winterthur | Schweizer Cup | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.1%, draw 21.2%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.30 | 5.31 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.33 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.56 | 5.65 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 3.92 | 4.47 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .